A persistent subtropical high-pressure system, often called the African anticyclone, continues to dominate the Mediterranean, advecting hot Saharan air northward and suppressing cloud cover across northern Italy. This setup supports surface temperatures well above Milan’s late-summer climatological average of roughly 28–30 °C, with official guidance and ensemble models indicating daytime maxima near 35–38 °C on 4 August. Key differentiating factors include the precise strength and position of the 850 hPa ridge, potential for localized subsidence warming, and the urban heat-island amplification within the Po Valley. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, keeping trader-implied odds closely balanced between 34 °C or below and the 35–36 °C bins while assigning low probability to extremes above 38 °C absent further ridge intensification. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 4?
34°C or below 34%
36°C 29%
35°C 28%
37°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
34°C or below
34%
35°C
28%
36°C
29%
37°C
5%
38°C
3%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
34°C or below 34%
36°C 29%
35°C 28%
37°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
34°C or below
$307 Vol.
34%
35°C
$233 Vol.
28%
36°C
$317 Vol.
29%
37°C
$179 Vol.
5%
38°C
$267 Vol.
3%
39°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$146 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A persistent subtropical high-pressure system, often called the African anticyclone, continues to dominate the Mediterranean, advecting hot Saharan air northward and suppressing cloud cover across northern Italy. This setup supports surface temperatures well above Milan’s late-summer climatological average of roughly 28–30 °C, with official guidance and ensemble models indicating daytime maxima near 35–38 °C on 4 August. Key differentiating factors include the precise strength and position of the 850 hPa ridge, potential for localized subsidence warming, and the urban heat-island amplification within the Po Valley. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, keeping trader-implied odds closely balanced between 34 °C or below and the 35–36 °C bins while assigning low probability to extremes above 38 °C absent further ridge intensification. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,163End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A persistent subtropical high-pressure system, often called the African anticyclone, continues to dominate the Mediterranean, advecting hot Saharan air northward and suppressing cloud cover across northern Italy. This setup supports surface temperatures well above Milan’s late-summer climatological average of roughly 28–30 °C, with official guidance and ensemble models indicating daytime maxima near 35–38 °C on 4 August. Key differentiating factors include the precise strength and position of the 850 hPa ridge, potential for localized subsidence warming, and the urban heat-island amplification within the Po Valley. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, keeping trader-implied odds closely balanced between 34 °C or below and the 35–36 °C bins while assigning low probability to extremes above 38 °C absent further ridge intensification. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,163End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...A persistent subtropical high-pressure system, often called the African anticyclone, continues to dominate the Mediterranean, advecting hot Saharan air northward and suppressing cloud cover across northern Italy. This setup supports surface temperatures well above Milan’s late-summer climatological average of roughly 28–30 °C, with official guidance and ensemble models indicating daytime maxima near 35–38 °C on 4 August. Key differentiating factors include the precise strength and position of the 850 hPa ridge, potential for localized subsidence warming, and the urban heat-island amplification within the Po Valley. Model consensus shows modest spread around these values, keeping trader-implied odds closely balanced between 34 °C or below and the 35–36 °C bins while assigning low probability to extremes above 38 °C absent further ridge intensification. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions