Latest global weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles accessed via China Meteorological Administration data, drive trader optimism for a Wuhan high of 22°C or higher (31.5% implied probability), projecting peak daytime temperatures around 20-22°C under mild southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Yangtze basin. This edges out 20°C (25.5%) and 21°C (22.5%) amid low model spread, with differentiation hinging on afternoon solar insolation versus potential scattered clouds—full sunshine could push maxima 1-2°C higher via enhanced surface heating. Historical late-March norms average 16-18°C, but recent anomalies from urban heat island effects and above-seasonal baselines tilt sentiment warmer, pending official intraday readings from local stations around 2-4 PM.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 25?
18°C 33%
20°C 26%
21°C 23%
19°C 21%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
14%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
19%
19°C
21%
20°C
26%
21°C
23%
22°C or higher
33%
18°C 33%
20°C 26%
21°C 23%
19°C 21%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
14%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
19%
19°C
21%
20°C
26%
21°C
23%
22°C or higher
33%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest global weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles accessed via China Meteorological Administration data, drive trader optimism for a Wuhan high of 22°C or higher (31.5% implied probability), projecting peak daytime temperatures around 20-22°C under mild southerly winds advecting warmer air from the Yangtze basin. This edges out 20°C (25.5%) and 21°C (22.5%) amid low model spread, with differentiation hinging on afternoon solar insolation versus potential scattered clouds—full sunshine could push maxima 1-2°C higher via enhanced surface heating. Historical late-March norms average 16-18°C, but recent anomalies from urban heat island effects and above-seasonal baselines tilt sentiment warmer, pending official intraday readings from local stations around 2-4 PM.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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