Kristi Noem’s mother publicly stated in mid-July that her daughter had retained a divorce attorney and informed family of plans to end the 34-year marriage, citing fallout from earlier tabloid reports on Bryon Noem’s private conduct. No official filing or joint confirmation has emerged since, leaving traders weighing the mother’s account against the absence of documented legal action just 18 days from the August 31 cutoff. The near-even 52% implied probability for “Yes” reflects this uncertainty—personal timelines often shift quietly, and verified public records or statements from the couple could still arrive or fail to materialize before the deadline. Any confirmed filing in the coming weeks would sharply move the market, while continued silence would likely sustain the current balance.