Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly winds over Cape Town through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling but limited by a persistent warm anomaly and spring baseline. This setup positions the daily minimum near 13–15°C according to multiple deterministic forecasts, aligning with the market’s clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14°C while assigning nearly even odds to 10°C or below amid typical model spread for nocturnal lows. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected in the next 48 hours, keeping higher-temperature bins at low single-digit probabilities. Updated SAWS briefings and next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 20?
10°C or below 95%
12°C 40%
11°C 39%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
95%
11°C
39%
12°C
40%
13°C
23%
14°C
23%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C
39%
18°C
8%
19°C
39%
20°C or higher
1%
10°C or below 95%
12°C 40%
11°C 39%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
23%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C or higher
$101 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly winds over Cape Town through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling but limited by a persistent warm anomaly and spring baseline. This setup positions the daily minimum near 13–15°C according to multiple deterministic forecasts, aligning with the market’s clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14°C while assigning nearly even odds to 10°C or below amid typical model spread for nocturnal lows. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected in the next 48 hours, keeping higher-temperature bins at low single-digit probabilities. Updated SAWS briefings and next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$101End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly winds over Cape Town through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling but limited by a persistent warm anomaly and spring baseline. This setup positions the daily minimum near 13–15°C according to multiple deterministic forecasts, aligning with the market’s clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14°C while assigning nearly even odds to 10°C or below amid typical model spread for nocturnal lows. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected in the next 48 hours, keeping higher-temperature bins at low single-digit probabilities. Updated SAWS briefings and next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$101End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly winds over Cape Town through September 20, supporting overnight radiative cooling but limited by a persistent warm anomaly and spring baseline. This setup positions the daily minimum near 13–15°C according to multiple deterministic forecasts, aligning with the market’s clustering of implied probabilities around 12–14°C while assigning nearly even odds to 10°C or below amid typical model spread for nocturnal lows. No significant cold advection or frontal passage is expected in the next 48 hours, keeping higher-temperature bins at low single-digit probabilities. Updated SAWS briefings and next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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