**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Cape Town will likely see a minimum temperature near 12–14°C on September 19 under clear skies and moderate southeasterly flow.** This setup favors modest radiative cooling overnight, with dew points and wind speeds limiting further drops below the seasonal average. Recent observations show the region running 2–3°C above the September climatological minimum, consistent with persistent high pressure and dry air. Traders’ closely matched probabilities around 49–50% across bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or model bias could alter the final reading by 1–2°C. The next high-resolution runs and South African Weather Service updates ahead of the 24-hour window will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 19?
18°C or higher 84%
8°C or below 82%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
8°C or below
82%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
25%
12°C
33%
13°C
21%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
8%
17°C
40%
18°C or higher
84%
18°C or higher 84%
8°C or below 82%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
82%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
33%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
8%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Cape Town will likely see a minimum temperature near 12–14°C on September 19 under clear skies and moderate southeasterly flow.** This setup favors modest radiative cooling overnight, with dew points and wind speeds limiting further drops below the seasonal average. Recent observations show the region running 2–3°C above the September climatological minimum, consistent with persistent high pressure and dry air. Traders’ closely matched probabilities around 49–50% across bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or model bias could alter the final reading by 1–2°C. The next high-resolution runs and South African Weather Service updates ahead of the 24-hour window will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Cape Town will likely see a minimum temperature near 12–14°C on September 19 under clear skies and moderate southeasterly flow.** This setup favors modest radiative cooling overnight, with dew points and wind speeds limiting further drops below the seasonal average. Recent observations show the region running 2–3°C above the September climatological minimum, consistent with persistent high pressure and dry air. Traders’ closely matched probabilities around 49–50% across bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or model bias could alter the final reading by 1–2°C. The next high-resolution runs and South African Weather Service updates ahead of the 24-hour window will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Cape Town will likely see a minimum temperature near 12–14°C on September 19 under clear skies and moderate southeasterly flow.** This setup favors modest radiative cooling overnight, with dew points and wind speeds limiting further drops below the seasonal average. Recent observations show the region running 2–3°C above the September climatological minimum, consistent with persistent high pressure and dry air. Traders’ closely matched probabilities around 49–50% across bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or model bias could alter the final reading by 1–2°C. The next high-resolution runs and South African Weather Service updates ahead of the 24-hour window will be the key catalysts for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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