**Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 64–65°F at key NYC stations (including Central Park and LaGuardia references) on June 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow that limited overnight radiative cooling.** This outcome aligned closely with pre-event model guidance from the NWS and major ensembles, which consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow band amid typical mid-June maritime air influence. Historical climatology for the date shows average lows near 65°F, providing additional context that reinforced trader confidence. The overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for 64–65°F reflects this strong data consensus backed by real capital at risk. Realistic challenges would require an unexpected late revision to the official climatological report (rare for NWS daily summaries) or a station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational variance, though such shifts are uncommon once preliminary readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on June 17?
Lowest temperature in NYC on June 17?
64-65°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$31,572 Vol.
$31,572 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
Yes
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
64-65°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$31,572 Vol.
$31,572 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
53°F or below
$2,308 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$881 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$3,090 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$5,103 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$2,863 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$2,803 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$7,515 Vol.
Yes
66-67°F
$4,284 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,316 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$955 Vol.
No
72°F or higher
$454 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 64–65°F at key NYC stations (including Central Park and LaGuardia references) on June 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow that limited overnight radiative cooling.** This outcome aligned closely with pre-event model guidance from the NWS and major ensembles, which consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow band amid typical mid-June maritime air influence. Historical climatology for the date shows average lows near 65°F, providing additional context that reinforced trader confidence. The overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for 64–65°F reflects this strong data consensus backed by real capital at risk.
Realistic challenges would require an unexpected late revision to the official climatological report (rare for NWS daily summaries) or a station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational variance, though such shifts are uncommon once preliminary readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 15, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$31,572End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 64–65°F at key NYC stations (including Central Park and LaGuardia references) on June 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow that limited overnight radiative cooling.** This outcome aligned closely with pre-event model guidance from the NWS and major ensembles, which consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow band amid typical mid-June maritime air influence. Historical climatology for the date shows average lows near 65°F, providing additional context that reinforced trader confidence. The overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for 64–65°F reflects this strong data consensus backed by real capital at risk.
Realistic challenges would require an unexpected late revision to the official climatological report (rare for NWS daily summaries) or a station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational variance, though such shifts are uncommon once preliminary readings are confirmed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,572End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 64–65°F at key NYC stations (including Central Park and LaGuardia references) on June 17, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow that limited overnight radiative cooling.** This outcome aligned closely with pre-event model guidance from the NWS and major ensembles, which consistently projected overnight lows in that narrow band amid typical mid-June maritime air influence. Historical climatology for the date shows average lows near 65°F, providing additional context that reinforced trader confidence. The overwhelming 99.6% market-implied probability for 64–65°F reflects this strong data consensus backed by real capital at risk. Realistic challenges would require an unexpected late revision to the official climatological report (rare for NWS daily summaries) or a station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational variance, though such shifts are uncommon once preliminary readings are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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