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Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?

icon for Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?

Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?

9°C 100.0%

5°C or below <1%

6°C <1%

7°C <1%

Polymarket

$26,573 Vol.

9°C 100.0%

5°C or below <1%

6°C <1%

7°C <1%

Polymarket

$26,573 Vol.

5°C or below

$1,924 Vol.

No

6°C

$3,184 Vol.

No

7°C

$2,004 Vol.

No

8°C

$2,413 Vol.

No

9°C

$6,685 Vol.

Yes

10°C

$1,933 Vol.

No

11°C

$984 Vol.

No

12°C

$1,040 Vol.

No

13°C

$1,620 Vol.

No

14°C

$2,691 Vol.

No

15°C or higher

$2,097 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station, the market's resolution source, confirm the lowest temperature on May 9, 2026, reached exactly 9°C during early morning hours under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that limited radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS model runs, which projected overnight lows of 9–11°C amid a mild Atlantic flow pattern typical for early May in Île-de-France, where historical averages hover around 10°C. Trader sentiment reflects this verified data from Météo-France archives and METAR reports, with near-certainty driven by real-time station telemetry. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc revisions for sensor calibration errors or disputes over the observation window, though final data typically solidifies within 24 hours. Monitor Infoclimat or Météo-France for any updates ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,573
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station, the market's resolution source, confirm the lowest temperature on May 9, 2026, reached exactly 9°C during early morning hours under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that limited radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with pre-event consensus from ECMWF and GFS model runs, which projected overnight lows of 9–11°C amid a mild Atlantic flow pattern typical for early May in Île-de-France, where historical averages hover around 10°C. Trader sentiment reflects this verified data from Météo-France archives and METAR reports, with near-certainty driven by real-time station telemetry. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc revisions for sensor calibration errors or disputes over the observation window, though final data typically solidifies within 24 hours. Monitor Infoclimat or Météo-France for any updates ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,573
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "9°C" at 100%, followed by "5°C or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?" has generated $26.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?" is "9°C" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5°C or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 9?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.