**Trader sentiment for Seoul’s July 13 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 25–26 °C because short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models place overnight lows near the upper end of typical early-July climatology (roughly 22–26 °C) amid a weakening East Asian monsoon.** Persistent high humidity and residual cloud cover from the Jangma front limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated and producing “tropical night” conditions (lowest temperature ≥ 25 °C) in recent days. Model consensus currently favors a minimum near 25–26 °C, with small differences driven by expected variations in low-level wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any clearing skies on the night of July 12–13. A slightly stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness would favor the 26 °C bucket, while marginally clearer conditions or a brief cool-air intrusion could push the reading to 25 °C or lower. Because resolution hinges on the official KMA station reading (lowest temperature between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m.), even modest forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours can shift probabilities between these two closely matched outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on July 13?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 13?
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$16,285 Vol.
$16,285 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$16,285 Vol.
$16,285 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
20°C or below
$349 Vol.
No
21°C
$452 Vol.
No
22°C
$344 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,679 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,414 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,095 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,172 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,684 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$1,039 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,630 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$427 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Seoul’s July 13 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 25–26 °C because short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models place overnight lows near the upper end of typical early-July climatology (roughly 22–26 °C) amid a weakening East Asian monsoon.**
Persistent high humidity and residual cloud cover from the Jangma front limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated and producing “tropical night” conditions (lowest temperature ≥ 25 °C) in recent days. Model consensus currently favors a minimum near 25–26 °C, with small differences driven by expected variations in low-level wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any clearing skies on the night of July 12–13. A slightly stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness would favor the 26 °C bucket, while marginally clearer conditions or a brief cool-air intrusion could push the reading to 25 °C or lower.
Because resolution hinges on the official KMA station reading (lowest temperature between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m.), even modest forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours can shift probabilities between these two closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,285End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Seoul’s July 13 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 25–26 °C because short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models place overnight lows near the upper end of typical early-July climatology (roughly 22–26 °C) amid a weakening East Asian monsoon.**
Persistent high humidity and residual cloud cover from the Jangma front limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated and producing “tropical night” conditions (lowest temperature ≥ 25 °C) in recent days. Model consensus currently favors a minimum near 25–26 °C, with small differences driven by expected variations in low-level wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any clearing skies on the night of July 12–13. A slightly stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness would favor the 26 °C bucket, while marginally clearer conditions or a brief cool-air intrusion could push the reading to 25 °C or lower.
Because resolution hinges on the official KMA station reading (lowest temperature between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m.), even modest forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours can shift probabilities between these two closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,285End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment for Seoul’s July 13 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 25–26 °C because short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models place overnight lows near the upper end of typical early-July climatology (roughly 22–26 °C) amid a weakening East Asian monsoon.** Persistent high humidity and residual cloud cover from the Jangma front limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimums elevated and producing “tropical night” conditions (lowest temperature ≥ 25 °C) in recent days. Model consensus currently favors a minimum near 25–26 °C, with small differences driven by expected variations in low-level wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any clearing skies on the night of July 12–13. A slightly stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness would favor the 26 °C bucket, while marginally clearer conditions or a brief cool-air intrusion could push the reading to 25 °C or lower. Because resolution hinges on the official KMA station reading (lowest temperature between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m.), even modest forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours can shift probabilities between these two closely matched outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions