Latest numerical weather models, including GFS ensembles, indicate a peak near 30–31°C for Panama City on September 20, driven by typical late-summer tropical moisture, high dew points near 25°C, and afternoon convective development that can cap daytime heating. Scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty, potentially trimming maxima by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage, while clear spells could allow brief spikes toward 32°C. This aligns with climatological September averages around 31°C and explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29–32°C. Traders weigh these factors against model consensus ahead of the next forecast cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on September 20?
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 20?
29°C 39%
32°C 38%
31°C 28%
30°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
15%
28°C
6%
29°C
39%
30°C
26%
31°C
28%
32°C
38%
33°C
19%
34°C or higher
11%
29°C 39%
32°C 38%
31°C 28%
30°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$0 Vol.
28%
32°C
$0 Vol.
38%
33°C
$0 Vol.
19%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather models, including GFS ensembles, indicate a peak near 30–31°C for Panama City on September 20, driven by typical late-summer tropical moisture, high dew points near 25°C, and afternoon convective development that can cap daytime heating. Scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty, potentially trimming maxima by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage, while clear spells could allow brief spikes toward 32°C. This aligns with climatological September averages around 31°C and explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29–32°C. Traders weigh these factors against model consensus ahead of the next forecast cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather models, including GFS ensembles, indicate a peak near 30–31°C for Panama City on September 20, driven by typical late-summer tropical moisture, high dew points near 25°C, and afternoon convective development that can cap daytime heating. Scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty, potentially trimming maxima by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage, while clear spells could allow brief spikes toward 32°C. This aligns with climatological September averages around 31°C and explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29–32°C. Traders weigh these factors against model consensus ahead of the next forecast cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather models, including GFS ensembles, indicate a peak near 30–31°C for Panama City on September 20, driven by typical late-summer tropical moisture, high dew points near 25°C, and afternoon convective development that can cap daytime heating. Scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty, potentially trimming maxima by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage, while clear spells could allow brief spikes toward 32°C. This aligns with climatological September averages around 31°C and explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29–32°C. Traders weigh these factors against model consensus ahead of the next forecast cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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