Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Vol.
$12,197 Vol.
May 4, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,197 Vol.
$12,197 Vol.
May 4, 2026
8°C or below
$553 Vol.
No
9°C
$522 Vol.
No
10°C
$816 Vol.
No
11°C
$771 Vol.
No
12°C
$824 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,700 Vol.
No
14°C
$3,829 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$628 Vol.
No
16°C
$634 Vol.
No
17°C
$500 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$419 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$12,197End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,197End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 14°C in Shanghai on May 4, 2026, reflecting authoritative observational data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and corroborating bulletins from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a daily low of 14°C amid overcast-to-sunny conditions. This positioning stems from early-morning measurements capturing the minimum before daytime warming to around 25°C under light southerly winds, consistent with spring climatology where May lows average 15–16°C but vary with cloud cover and urban heat effects. Model ensembles from global forecasts, including those on timeanddate.com and weather.com.cn, aligned precisely on this outcome by midday. Realistic challenges would require unexpected radiational cooling overnight from prolonged clear skies, though current trajectories and residual cloudiness render this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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