Reinaldo Azambuja leads the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race as the clear frontrunner for first place, backed by strong name recognition from his two terms as governor and recent affiliation with the PL party. Recent polls, including a mid-August Ranking survey, place him well ahead of rivals such as Capitão Contar, who shares the PL ticket, along with Vander Loubet and others. Bolsonaro family endorsements and PL organizational support have consolidated right-leaning voter preferences in a state that leans conservative. With the October 2026 general election approaching, these factors have sustained Azambuja's dominant position in trader assessments while keeping secondary candidates at lower implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 67%
Capitão Contar 43%
Beto do Movimento 23%
Vander Loubet 21%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
73%
Capitão Contar
43%
Beto do Movimento
23%
Vander Loubet
21%
Valderi Garcia
19%
Daniel Junior
18%
Soraya
14%
Roberto Oshiro
7%
Valter da Comagran
7%
Luiz Lemes
6%
Reinaldo Azambuja 67%
Capitão Contar 43%
Beto do Movimento 23%
Vander Loubet 21%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$234 Vol.
73%
Capitão Contar
$21 Vol.
43%
Beto do Movimento
$21 Vol.
23%
Vander Loubet
$21 Vol.
21%
Valderi Garcia
$21 Vol.
19%
Daniel Junior
$21 Vol.
18%
Soraya
$21 Vol.
14%
Roberto Oshiro
$92 Vol.
7%
Valter da Comagran
$90 Vol.
7%
Luiz Lemes
$42 Vol.
6%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja leads the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race as the clear frontrunner for first place, backed by strong name recognition from his two terms as governor and recent affiliation with the PL party. Recent polls, including a mid-August Ranking survey, place him well ahead of rivals such as Capitão Contar, who shares the PL ticket, along with Vander Loubet and others. Bolsonaro family endorsements and PL organizational support have consolidated right-leaning voter preferences in a state that leans conservative. With the October 2026 general election approaching, these factors have sustained Azambuja's dominant position in trader assessments while keeping secondary candidates at lower implied probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$584End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja leads the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race as the clear frontrunner for first place, backed by strong name recognition from his two terms as governor and recent affiliation with the PL party. Recent polls, including a mid-August Ranking survey, place him well ahead of rivals such as Capitão Contar, who shares the PL ticket, along with Vander Loubet and others. Bolsonaro family endorsements and PL organizational support have consolidated right-leaning voter preferences in a state that leans conservative. With the October 2026 general election approaching, these factors have sustained Azambuja's dominant position in trader assessments while keeping secondary candidates at lower implied probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$584End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja leads the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race as the clear frontrunner for first place, backed by strong name recognition from his two terms as governor and recent affiliation with the PL party. Recent polls, including a mid-August Ranking survey, place him well ahead of rivals such as Capitão Contar, who shares the PL ticket, along with Vander Loubet and others. Bolsonaro family endorsements and PL organizational support have consolidated right-leaning voter preferences in a state that leans conservative. With the October 2026 general election approaching, these factors have sustained Azambuja's dominant position in trader assessments while keeping secondary candidates at lower implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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