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Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MI-10 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

Mike Bouchard 55%

Robert Lulgjuraj 30.9%

Steven Elliott 10.6%

Casey Armitage 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Bouchard 55%

Robert Lulgjuraj 30.9%

Steven Elliott 10.6%

Casey Armitage 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Bouchard

$2,075 Vol.

58%

Robert Lulgjuraj

$2,077 Vol.

26%

Steven Elliott

$0 Vol.

11%

Casey Armitage

$2,298 Vol.

8%

Justin Kirk

$808 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mike Bouchard leads trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability to win Michigan's 10th Congressional District Republican primary for the open seat left by Rep. John James' gubernatorial run, driven by early polls like OnMessage (37%-8% over Lulgjuraj) and Strategic National (29%-11%), superior fundraising ($847k cash on hand as of March 31), Army veteran credentials, and endorsements from Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Macomb Prosecutor Pete Lucido. Robert Lulgjuraj holds 25.1% with comparable cash ($822k), Macomb roots as ex-prosecutor, and local legislator backing, though trailing in surveys. Steven Elliott garners 15.3% as Marine veteran and business owner; Casey Armitage 8%; Justin Kirk negligible. Recent April 15 fundraising reports and April 21 petition filings affirmed leaders' ballot access amid Lulgjuraj's debate challenge, with primary August 4.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,258
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mike Bouchard leads trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability to win Michigan's 10th Congressional District Republican primary for the open seat left by Rep. John James' gubernatorial run, driven by early polls like OnMessage (37%-8% over Lulgjuraj) and Strategic National (29%-11%), superior fundraising ($847k cash on hand as of March 31), Army veteran credentials, and endorsements from Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Macomb Prosecutor Pete Lucido. Robert Lulgjuraj holds 25.1% with comparable cash ($822k), Macomb roots as ex-prosecutor, and local legislator backing, though trailing in surveys. Steven Elliott garners 15.3% as Marine veteran and business owner; Casey Armitage 8%; Justin Kirk negligible. Recent April 15 fundraising reports and April 21 petition filings affirmed leaders' ballot access amid Lulgjuraj's debate challenge, with primary August 4.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,258
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Bouchard" at 58%, followed by "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mike Bouchard" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.