**Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds the leading position in the 2026 Montana Senate race at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting Montana’s consistent Republican tilt in federal contests and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines’ March withdrawal and endorsement.** Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, secured the nomination with roughly 77% in the June 2 Republican primary against limited opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and backed by ex-Sen. Jon Tester, sits at 23.8% on statewide name recognition, though the three-way general election ballot on November 3 splits non-Republican votes and reinforces Alme’s edge in available polling. Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her June 2 primary, trails at 1.4% amid limited visibility and the state’s partisan baseline. Low overall candidate familiarity keeps focus on structural factors and recent primary outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 76%
Indépendant 23.6%
Démocrate 1.3%
$79,308 Vol.
$79,308 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
76%
Indépendant
24%
Démocrate
1%
Républicain 76%
Indépendant 23.6%
Démocrate 1.3%
$79,308 Vol.
$79,308 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
$39,766 Vol.
76%
Indépendant
$2,712 Vol.
24%
Démocrate
$36,830 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds the leading position in the 2026 Montana Senate race at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting Montana’s consistent Republican tilt in federal contests and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines’ March withdrawal and endorsement.** Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, secured the nomination with roughly 77% in the June 2 Republican primary against limited opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and backed by ex-Sen. Jon Tester, sits at 23.8% on statewide name recognition, though the three-way general election ballot on November 3 splits non-Republican votes and reinforces Alme’s edge in available polling. Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her June 2 primary, trails at 1.4% amid limited visibility and the state’s partisan baseline. Low overall candidate familiarity keeps focus on structural factors and recent primary outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$79,308Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds the leading position in the 2026 Montana Senate race at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting Montana’s consistent Republican tilt in federal contests and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines’ March withdrawal and endorsement.** Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, secured the nomination with roughly 77% in the June 2 Republican primary against limited opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and backed by ex-Sen. Jon Tester, sits at 23.8% on statewide name recognition, though the three-way general election ballot on November 3 splits non-Republican votes and reinforces Alme’s edge in available polling. Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her June 2 primary, trails at 1.4% amid limited visibility and the state’s partisan baseline. Low overall candidate familiarity keeps focus on structural factors and recent primary outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$79,308Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds the leading position in the 2026 Montana Senate race at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting Montana’s consistent Republican tilt in federal contests and unified party support following incumbent Steve Daines’ March withdrawal and endorsement.** Alme, a former U.S. Attorney, secured the nomination with roughly 77% in the June 2 Republican primary against limited opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and backed by ex-Sen. Jon Tester, sits at 23.8% on statewide name recognition, though the three-way general election ballot on November 3 splits non-Republican votes and reinforces Alme’s edge in available polling. Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her June 2 primary, trails at 1.4% amid limited visibility and the state’s partisan baseline. Low overall candidate familiarity keeps focus on structural factors and recent primary outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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