Montana’s Republican lean in an open-seat contest, combined with unified party backing for nominee Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines’ March 2026 withdrawal and endorsement, positions the GOP as the clear frontrunner at 73.5% in trader pricing. Alme’s decisive June 2 primary win, bolstered by President Trump’s support and strong fundraising, reinforces this edge amid the state’s structural advantages for Republicans. Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, commands 25.1% odds on name recognition and backing from former Sen. Jon Tester, though the three-way general election ballot splits the non-Republican vote and limits his path. Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her June 2 primary, remains at 1.4% due to limited statewide visibility. Low overall candidate familiarity and the November 3 general election timeline keep focus on these recent primary outcomes and partisan fundamentals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRepublican 74%
Independent 27.5%
Democrat 1.3%
$79,182 Vol.
$79,182 Vol.

Republican
74%

Independent
24%

Democrat
1%
Republican 74%
Independent 27.5%
Democrat 1.3%
$79,182 Vol.
$79,182 Vol.

Republican
74%

Independent
24%

Democrat
1%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Binuksan ang Market: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana’s Republican lean in an open-seat contest, combined with unified party backing for nominee Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines’ March 2026 withdrawal and endorsement, positions the GOP as the clear frontrunner at 73.5% in trader pricing. Alme’s decisive June 2 primary win, bolstered by President Trump’s support and strong fundraising, reinforces this edge amid the state’s structural advantages for Republicans. Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, commands 25.1% odds on name recognition and backing from former Sen. Jon Tester, though the three-way general election ballot splits the non-Republican vote and limits his path. Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her June 2 primary, remains at 1.4% due to limited statewide visibility. Low overall candidate familiarity and the November 3 general election timeline keep focus on these recent primary outcomes and partisan fundamentals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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