Microsoft shares, trading near $422 after a 3% gain on May 15, reflect trader focus on sustained Azure and AI momentum following the April 29 fiscal Q3 beat, where revenue rose 18% to $82.9 billion and adjusted EPS reached $4.27. Heavy $190 billion capital spending guidance and broader market volatility have capped upside expectations, keeping the $410–$430 range as the tightest cluster of market-implied probabilities. Institutional buying from firms including Pershing Square adds support ahead of the May 21 ex-dividend date, while any near-term resolution of trade policy uncertainty could influence weekly closes within the $400–$450 bands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$420-$430 40%
$410-$420 24%
$400-$410 21%
$430-$440 20%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
<$360
9%
$360-$370
11%
$370-$380
11%
$380-$390
10%
$390-$400
11%
$400-$410
21%
$410-$420
24%
$420-$430
40%
$430-$440
20%
$440-$450
11%
>$450
18%
$420-$430 40%
$410-$420 24%
$400-$410 21%
$430-$440 20%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
<$360
$24 Vol.
9%
$360-$370
$12 Vol.
11%
$370-$380
$0 Vol.
11%
$380-$390
$0 Vol.
10%
$390-$400
$0 Vol.
11%
$400-$410
$0 Vol.
21%
$410-$420
$0 Vol.
24%
$420-$430
$0 Vol.
40%
$430-$440
$0 Vol.
20%
$440-$450
$0 Vol.
11%
>$450
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares, trading near $422 after a 3% gain on May 15, reflect trader focus on sustained Azure and AI momentum following the April 29 fiscal Q3 beat, where revenue rose 18% to $82.9 billion and adjusted EPS reached $4.27. Heavy $190 billion capital spending guidance and broader market volatility have capped upside expectations, keeping the $410–$430 range as the tightest cluster of market-implied probabilities. Institutional buying from firms including Pershing Square adds support ahead of the May 21 ex-dividend date, while any near-term resolution of trade policy uncertainty could influence weekly closes within the $400–$450 bands.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$36End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares, trading near $422 after a 3% gain on May 15, reflect trader focus on sustained Azure and AI momentum following the April 29 fiscal Q3 beat, where revenue rose 18% to $82.9 billion and adjusted EPS reached $4.27. Heavy $190 billion capital spending guidance and broader market volatility have capped upside expectations, keeping the $410–$430 range as the tightest cluster of market-implied probabilities. Institutional buying from firms including Pershing Square adds support ahead of the May 21 ex-dividend date, while any near-term resolution of trade policy uncertainty could influence weekly closes within the $400–$450 bands.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$36End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft shares, trading near $422 after a 3% gain on May 15, reflect trader focus on sustained Azure and AI momentum following the April 29 fiscal Q3 beat, where revenue rose 18% to $82.9 billion and adjusted EPS reached $4.27. Heavy $190 billion capital spending guidance and broader market volatility have capped upside expectations, keeping the $410–$430 range as the tightest cluster of market-implied probabilities. Institutional buying from firms including Pershing Square adds support ahead of the May 21 ex-dividend date, while any near-term resolution of trade policy uncertainty could influence weekly closes within the $400–$450 bands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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