Odyssey Therapeutics priced its upsized IPO at $18 per share—the top of its $16–$18 range—raising $279 million and implying a fully diluted market cap of $810 million, but shares debuted on Nasdaq under ODTX on May 8, opening at $20 before declining 3.9% to close at $17.30 on elevated volume of 2.3 million shares. This yielded a closing market cap of approximately $780 million, firmly below the $800 million threshold and driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the <$0.8B outcome as trader consensus prices in the confirmed debut-day result. Supporting factors include the clinical-stage biotech's minimal $3 million trailing-twelve-month revenue, $149 million net loss, and early-pipeline autoimmune assets lacking near-term milestones, amid subdued biotech IPO sentiment; realistic challenges would require resolution disputes over share count or retroactive adjustments, though unlikely given standard fully diluted calculations from S-1 filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$0.8B 100.0%
$0.8B–$1.1B <1%
$1.1B–$1.4B <1%
$1.4B+ <1%
$23,936 Vol.
$23,936 Vol.
May 8, 2026
<$0.8B
Yes
$0.8B–$1.1B
No
$1.1B–$1.4B
No
$1.4B+
No
No IPO before July 2026
No
<$0.8B 100.0%
$0.8B–$1.1B <1%
$1.1B–$1.4B <1%
$1.4B+ <1%
$23,936 Vol.
$23,936 Vol.
May 8, 2026
<$0.8B
$6,284 Vol.
Yes
$0.8B–$1.1B
$7,454 Vol.
No
$1.1B–$1.4B
$4,402 Vol.
No
$1.4B+
$4,253 Vol.
No
No IPO before July 2026
$1,542 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on Odyssey Therapeutics' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Odyssey Therapeutics priced its upsized IPO at $18 per share—the top of its $16–$18 range—raising $279 million and implying a fully diluted market cap of $810 million, but shares debuted on Nasdaq under ODTX on May 8, opening at $20 before declining 3.9% to close at $17.30 on elevated volume of 2.3 million shares. This yielded a closing market cap of approximately $780 million, firmly below the $800 million threshold and driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the <$0.8B outcome as trader consensus prices in the confirmed debut-day result. Supporting factors include the clinical-stage biotech's minimal $3 million trailing-twelve-month revenue, $149 million net loss, and early-pipeline autoimmune assets lacking near-term milestones, amid subdued biotech IPO sentiment; realistic challenges would require resolution disputes over share count or retroactive adjustments, though unlikely given standard fully diluted calculations from S-1 filings.
This market will resolve based on Odyssey Therapeutics' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$23,936End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on Odyssey Therapeutics' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Odyssey Therapeutics priced its upsized IPO at $18 per share—the top of its $16–$18 range—raising $279 million and implying a fully diluted market cap of $810 million, but shares debuted on Nasdaq under ODTX on May 8, opening at $20 before declining 3.9% to close at $17.30 on elevated volume of 2.3 million shares. This yielded a closing market cap of approximately $780 million, firmly below the $800 million threshold and driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the <$0.8B outcome as trader consensus prices in the confirmed debut-day result. Supporting factors include the clinical-stage biotech's minimal $3 million trailing-twelve-month revenue, $149 million net loss, and early-pipeline autoimmune assets lacking near-term milestones, amid subdued biotech IPO sentiment; realistic challenges would require resolution disputes over share count or retroactive adjustments, though unlikely given standard fully diluted calculations from S-1 filings.
This market will resolve based on Odyssey Therapeutics' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 8 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$23,936End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Odyssey Therapeutics priced its upsized IPO at $18 per share—the top of its $16–$18 range—raising $279 million and implying a fully diluted market cap of $810 million, but shares debuted on Nasdaq under ODTX on May 8, opening at $20 before declining 3.9% to close at $17.30 on elevated volume of 2.3 million shares. This yielded a closing market cap of approximately $780 million, firmly below the $800 million threshold and driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the <$0.8B outcome as trader consensus prices in the confirmed debut-day result. Supporting factors include the clinical-stage biotech's minimal $3 million trailing-twelve-month revenue, $149 million net loss, and early-pipeline autoimmune assets lacking near-term milestones, amid subdued biotech IPO sentiment; realistic challenges would require resolution disputes over share count or retroactive adjustments, though unlikely given standard fully diluted calculations from S-1 filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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