**OPEC continues to function as an active intergovernmental organization coordinating crude output among its remaining members despite the United Arab Emirates' formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026.** That departure, driven by Abu Dhabi's desire for greater production flexibility amid post-conflict market conditions following the Iran conflict, prompted short-term speculation about cartel fragmentation and reduced pricing influence. However, subsequent developments have reinforced institutional continuity. In July 2026, participating OPEC+ countries—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held virtual ministerial meetings, agreed to modest August output increases of 188,000 barrels per day, and scheduled further reviews for early August along with ongoing quota assessments through year-end. OPEC has also released its World Oil Outlook 2026 and maintained its standard calendar of monthly reports and ministerial gatherings, signaling sustained operational capacity. These actions reflect the core producers' shared interest in market stability and quota discipline, outweighing any single-member exit in trader assessments of dissolution risk for the remainder of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$31,948 Vol.
$31,948 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$31,948 Vol.
$31,948 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**OPEC continues to function as an active intergovernmental organization coordinating crude output among its remaining members despite the United Arab Emirates' formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026.** That departure, driven by Abu Dhabi's desire for greater production flexibility amid post-conflict market conditions following the Iran conflict, prompted short-term speculation about cartel fragmentation and reduced pricing influence. However, subsequent developments have reinforced institutional continuity. In July 2026, participating OPEC+ countries—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held virtual ministerial meetings, agreed to modest August output increases of 188,000 barrels per day, and scheduled further reviews for early August along with ongoing quota assessments through year-end. OPEC has also released its World Oil Outlook 2026 and maintained its standard calendar of monthly reports and ministerial gatherings, signaling sustained operational capacity. These actions reflect the core producers' shared interest in market stability and quota discipline, outweighing any single-member exit in trader assessments of dissolution risk for the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$31,948End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**OPEC continues to function as an active intergovernmental organization coordinating crude output among its remaining members despite the United Arab Emirates' formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026.** That departure, driven by Abu Dhabi's desire for greater production flexibility amid post-conflict market conditions following the Iran conflict, prompted short-term speculation about cartel fragmentation and reduced pricing influence. However, subsequent developments have reinforced institutional continuity. In July 2026, participating OPEC+ countries—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held virtual ministerial meetings, agreed to modest August output increases of 188,000 barrels per day, and scheduled further reviews for early August along with ongoing quota assessments through year-end. OPEC has also released its World Oil Outlook 2026 and maintained its standard calendar of monthly reports and ministerial gatherings, signaling sustained operational capacity. These actions reflect the core producers' shared interest in market stability and quota discipline, outweighing any single-member exit in trader assessments of dissolution risk for the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,948End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**OPEC continues to function as an active intergovernmental organization coordinating crude output among its remaining members despite the United Arab Emirates' formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026.** That departure, driven by Abu Dhabi's desire for greater production flexibility amid post-conflict market conditions following the Iran conflict, prompted short-term speculation about cartel fragmentation and reduced pricing influence. However, subsequent developments have reinforced institutional continuity. In July 2026, participating OPEC+ countries—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held virtual ministerial meetings, agreed to modest August output increases of 188,000 barrels per day, and scheduled further reviews for early August along with ongoing quota assessments through year-end. OPEC has also released its World Oil Outlook 2026 and maintained its standard calendar of monthly reports and ministerial gatherings, signaling sustained operational capacity. These actions reflect the core producers' shared interest in market stability and quota discipline, outweighing any single-member exit in trader assessments of dissolution risk for the remainder of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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