**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the cartel’s demonstrated resilience following the UAE’s May 1 exit, which trimmed its global production share but left core members—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others—actively coordinating output cuts and releasing updated demand forecasts.** OPEC+ ministerial meetings in May and June 2026 reaffirmed commitments to market stability, with production adjustments and a planned World Oil Outlook launch underscoring institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical precedent of surviving member departures and geopolitical shocks further supports the 93.5% implied probability that the organization will remain intact through year-end. While additional exits or acute supply disruptions could intensify pressure on cohesion, current coordination and lack of dissolution signals keep full breakup probabilities low.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,606 Vol.
$29,606 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$29,606 Vol.
$29,606 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the cartel’s demonstrated resilience following the UAE’s May 1 exit, which trimmed its global production share but left core members—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others—actively coordinating output cuts and releasing updated demand forecasts.** OPEC+ ministerial meetings in May and June 2026 reaffirmed commitments to market stability, with production adjustments and a planned World Oil Outlook launch underscoring institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical precedent of surviving member departures and geopolitical shocks further supports the 93.5% implied probability that the organization will remain intact through year-end. While additional exits or acute supply disruptions could intensify pressure on cohesion, current coordination and lack of dissolution signals keep full breakup probabilities low.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$29,606Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the cartel’s demonstrated resilience following the UAE’s May 1 exit, which trimmed its global production share but left core members—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others—actively coordinating output cuts and releasing updated demand forecasts.** OPEC+ ministerial meetings in May and June 2026 reaffirmed commitments to market stability, with production adjustments and a planned World Oil Outlook launch underscoring institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical precedent of surviving member departures and geopolitical shocks further supports the 93.5% implied probability that the organization will remain intact through year-end. While additional exits or acute supply disruptions could intensify pressure on cohesion, current coordination and lack of dissolution signals keep full breakup probabilities low.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$29,606Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 reflects the cartel’s demonstrated resilience following the UAE’s May 1 exit, which trimmed its global production share but left core members—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others—actively coordinating output cuts and releasing updated demand forecasts.** OPEC+ ministerial meetings in May and June 2026 reaffirmed commitments to market stability, with production adjustments and a planned World Oil Outlook launch underscoring institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical precedent of surviving member departures and geopolitical shocks further supports the 93.5% implied probability that the organization will remain intact through year-end. While additional exits or acute supply disruptions could intensify pressure on cohesion, current coordination and lack of dissolution signals keep full breakup probabilities low.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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