OPEC maintains active operations through September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others holding regular ministerial meetings to adjust output policies, extend compensation periods, and review production capacities for 2027 quotas. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced the group's footprint but prompted no formal dissolution agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, as Iraq and Venezuela have signaled continued participation despite quota disputes and internal strains. Traders assign 96.2% probability to "No" because the organization continues issuing statements, coordinating voluntary cuts, and functioning as an intergovernmental body amid geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict. Dissolution by year-end would require either a sudden majority exit or explicit termination pact, neither of which appears imminent based on current diplomatic and institutional continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$38,516 Vol.
$38,516 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$38,516 Vol.
$38,516 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains active operations through September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others holding regular ministerial meetings to adjust output policies, extend compensation periods, and review production capacities for 2027 quotas. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced the group's footprint but prompted no formal dissolution agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, as Iraq and Venezuela have signaled continued participation despite quota disputes and internal strains. Traders assign 96.2% probability to "No" because the organization continues issuing statements, coordinating voluntary cuts, and functioning as an intergovernmental body amid geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict. Dissolution by year-end would require either a sudden majority exit or explicit termination pact, neither of which appears imminent based on current diplomatic and institutional continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$38,516End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains active operations through September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others holding regular ministerial meetings to adjust output policies, extend compensation periods, and review production capacities for 2027 quotas. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced the group's footprint but prompted no formal dissolution agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, as Iraq and Venezuela have signaled continued participation despite quota disputes and internal strains. Traders assign 96.2% probability to "No" because the organization continues issuing statements, coordinating voluntary cuts, and functioning as an intergovernmental body amid geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict. Dissolution by year-end would require either a sudden majority exit or explicit termination pact, neither of which appears imminent based on current diplomatic and institutional continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,516End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC maintains active operations through September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others holding regular ministerial meetings to adjust output policies, extend compensation periods, and review production capacities for 2027 quotas. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced the group's footprint but prompted no formal dissolution agreement or coordinated withdrawal by more than half the remaining members, as Iraq and Venezuela have signaled continued participation despite quota disputes and internal strains. Traders assign 96.2% probability to "No" because the organization continues issuing statements, coordinating voluntary cuts, and functioning as an intergovernmental body amid geopolitical pressures from the Iran conflict. Dissolution by year-end would require either a sudden majority exit or explicit termination pact, neither of which appears imminent based on current diplomatic and institutional continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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