Recent developments underscore ongoing fragmentation within OPEC following the UAE’s exit effective May 1, 2026, after years of quota disputes and capacity constraints. Venezuela is weighing a departure as of late August amid U.S. engagement and production ambitions, while Iraq expressed dissatisfaction in June over output limits and warned of possible withdrawal pending quota reviews, though officials have reaffirmed plans to remain. These signals reflect national priorities on production flexibility amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and shifting energy markets. With only four months left in 2026 and no additional confirmed exits or imminent announcements, trader consensus assigns the higher probability to no further departures, viewing structural barriers and procedural timelines as significant hurdles despite evident cohesion pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
33% chance
$170,876 Vol.
$170,876 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
33% chance
$170,876 Vol.
$170,876 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments underscore ongoing fragmentation within OPEC following the UAE’s exit effective May 1, 2026, after years of quota disputes and capacity constraints. Venezuela is weighing a departure as of late August amid U.S. engagement and production ambitions, while Iraq expressed dissatisfaction in June over output limits and warned of possible withdrawal pending quota reviews, though officials have reaffirmed plans to remain. These signals reflect national priorities on production flexibility amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and shifting energy markets. With only four months left in 2026 and no additional confirmed exits or imminent announcements, trader consensus assigns the higher probability to no further departures, viewing structural barriers and procedural timelines as significant hurdles despite evident cohesion pressures.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$170,876End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments underscore ongoing fragmentation within OPEC following the UAE’s exit effective May 1, 2026, after years of quota disputes and capacity constraints. Venezuela is weighing a departure as of late August amid U.S. engagement and production ambitions, while Iraq expressed dissatisfaction in June over output limits and warned of possible withdrawal pending quota reviews, though officials have reaffirmed plans to remain. These signals reflect national priorities on production flexibility amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and shifting energy markets. With only four months left in 2026 and no additional confirmed exits or imminent announcements, trader consensus assigns the higher probability to no further departures, viewing structural barriers and procedural timelines as significant hurdles despite evident cohesion pressures.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$170,876End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments underscore ongoing fragmentation within OPEC following the UAE’s exit effective May 1, 2026, after years of quota disputes and capacity constraints. Venezuela is weighing a departure as of late August amid U.S. engagement and production ambitions, while Iraq expressed dissatisfaction in June over output limits and warned of possible withdrawal pending quota reviews, though officials have reaffirmed plans to remain. These signals reflect national priorities on production flexibility amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and shifting energy markets. With only four months left in 2026 and no additional confirmed exits or imminent announcements, trader consensus assigns the higher probability to no further departures, viewing structural barriers and procedural timelines as significant hurdles despite evident cohesion pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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