Recent exits, including the UAE’s formal withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, and Angola’s departure in 2024, have already strained OPEC cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and capacity assessments. Venezuela’s ongoing deliberations as of late August represent the primary near-term risk, linked to improving U.S. ties and potential oil-sector deals, yet remain unconfirmed with negligible immediate supply effects. Iraq signaled possible withdrawal in June unless quotas rise but has continued pushing internally without exiting. These developments, set against the Iran-related regional disruptions that prompted the UAE move, have led traders to price only a modest chance of one more formal departure before year-end, viewing core members’ quota negotiations and institutional inertia as stabilizing forces.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
33% chance
$170,876 Vol.
$170,876 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
33% chance
$170,876 Vol.
$170,876 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent exits, including the UAE’s formal withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, and Angola’s departure in 2024, have already strained OPEC cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and capacity assessments. Venezuela’s ongoing deliberations as of late August represent the primary near-term risk, linked to improving U.S. ties and potential oil-sector deals, yet remain unconfirmed with negligible immediate supply effects. Iraq signaled possible withdrawal in June unless quotas rise but has continued pushing internally without exiting. These developments, set against the Iran-related regional disruptions that prompted the UAE move, have led traders to price only a modest chance of one more formal departure before year-end, viewing core members’ quota negotiations and institutional inertia as stabilizing forces.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$170,876End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent exits, including the UAE’s formal withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, and Angola’s departure in 2024, have already strained OPEC cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and capacity assessments. Venezuela’s ongoing deliberations as of late August represent the primary near-term risk, linked to improving U.S. ties and potential oil-sector deals, yet remain unconfirmed with negligible immediate supply effects. Iraq signaled possible withdrawal in June unless quotas rise but has continued pushing internally without exiting. These developments, set against the Iran-related regional disruptions that prompted the UAE move, have led traders to price only a modest chance of one more formal departure before year-end, viewing core members’ quota negotiations and institutional inertia as stabilizing forces.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$170,876End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent exits, including the UAE’s formal withdrawal effective May 1, 2026, and Angola’s departure in 2024, have already strained OPEC cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and capacity assessments. Venezuela’s ongoing deliberations as of late August represent the primary near-term risk, linked to improving U.S. ties and potential oil-sector deals, yet remain unconfirmed with negligible immediate supply effects. Iraq signaled possible withdrawal in June unless quotas rise but has continued pushing internally without exiting. These developments, set against the Iran-related regional disruptions that prompted the UAE move, have led traders to price only a modest chance of one more formal departure before year-end, viewing core members’ quota negotiations and institutional inertia as stabilizing forces.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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