The UAE's explicit statements ruling out further withdrawals from regional bodies shortly after its April 2026 OPEC exit, combined with continued participation in GCC initiatives, underpin the 93% implied probability against departure in 2026. GCC foreign ministers and the secretary-general have advanced concrete integration steps, including approval and imminent launch of a unified tourist visa for all six members. UAE representatives have also emphasized unity in joint GCC-U.S. ministerial meetings amid regional security challenges. While bilateral frictions with Saudi Arabia persist over energy quotas and Yemen policy, these have not produced any formal exit signals or procedural moves. Traders assess the structural barriers—shared defense commitments, economic interdependence, and institutional continuity—as outweighing isolated strains, consistent with historical patterns of GCC cohesion despite periodic divergences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
7% chance
$100,518 Vol.
$100,518 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$100,518 Vol.
$100,518 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The UAE's explicit statements ruling out further withdrawals from regional bodies shortly after its April 2026 OPEC exit, combined with continued participation in GCC initiatives, underpin the 93% implied probability against departure in 2026. GCC foreign ministers and the secretary-general have advanced concrete integration steps, including approval and imminent launch of a unified tourist visa for all six members. UAE representatives have also emphasized unity in joint GCC-U.S. ministerial meetings amid regional security challenges. While bilateral frictions with Saudi Arabia persist over energy quotas and Yemen policy, these have not produced any formal exit signals or procedural moves. Traders assess the structural barriers—shared defense commitments, economic interdependence, and institutional continuity—as outweighing isolated strains, consistent with historical patterns of GCC cohesion despite periodic divergences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 3:54 PM ET
Volume
$100,518End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The UAE's explicit statements ruling out further withdrawals from regional bodies shortly after its April 2026 OPEC exit, combined with continued participation in GCC initiatives, underpin the 93% implied probability against departure in 2026. GCC foreign ministers and the secretary-general have advanced concrete integration steps, including approval and imminent launch of a unified tourist visa for all six members. UAE representatives have also emphasized unity in joint GCC-U.S. ministerial meetings amid regional security challenges. While bilateral frictions with Saudi Arabia persist over energy quotas and Yemen policy, these have not produced any formal exit signals or procedural moves. Traders assess the structural barriers—shared defense commitments, economic interdependence, and institutional continuity—as outweighing isolated strains, consistent with historical patterns of GCC cohesion despite periodic divergences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$100,518End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's explicit statements ruling out further withdrawals from regional bodies shortly after its April 2026 OPEC exit, combined with continued participation in GCC initiatives, underpin the 93% implied probability against departure in 2026. GCC foreign ministers and the secretary-general have advanced concrete integration steps, including approval and imminent launch of a unified tourist visa for all six members. UAE representatives have also emphasized unity in joint GCC-U.S. ministerial meetings amid regional security challenges. While bilateral frictions with Saudi Arabia persist over energy quotas and Yemen policy, these have not produced any formal exit signals or procedural moves. Traders assess the structural barriers—shared defense commitments, economic interdependence, and institutional continuity—as outweighing isolated strains, consistent with historical patterns of GCC cohesion despite periodic divergences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions