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Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

Pastor Gilvan Costa 47%

Samuel Timoteo 46%

Túlio Gadêlha 46%

Paulo Rubem Santiago 43%

Polymarket
NEW

Pastor Gilvan Costa 47%

Samuel Timoteo 46%

Túlio Gadêlha 46%

Paulo Rubem Santiago 43%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Pastor Gilvan Costa

Pastor Gilvan Costa

$0 Vol.

47%

icon for Samuel Timoteo

Samuel Timoteo

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for Túlio Gadêlha

Túlio Gadêlha

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for Paulo Rubem Santiago

Paulo Rubem Santiago

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Gorett Bitu

Gorett Bitu

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Mendonça Filho

Mendonça Filho

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Carlos Sant'Anna

Carlos Sant'Anna

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Eduardo da Fonte

Eduardo da Fonte

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Mariano Macedo

Mariano Macedo

$0 Vol.

28%

icon for Mailson da Silva Neto

Mailson da Silva Neto

$0 Vol.

27%

icon for Marília Arraes

Marília Arraes

$0 Vol.

24%

icon for Humberto Costa

Humberto Costa

$0 Vol.

23%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Pernambuco shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes holding a lead in several surveys while Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho, and others remain within striking distance amid high undecided shares. Formal campaigning has only recently intensified, with candidates such as Túlio Gadêlha declaring assets and launching regional agendas alongside state allies, yet party coalitions and voter alignments remain fluid ahead of the October vote. This multi-candidate dynamic, combined with limited name recognition for several contenders and shifting alliances across PT, PDT, PL, and PSD, sustains tight implied probabilities across the board. Late developments like additional endorsements, debate performances, or turnout shifts in key regions could quickly separate frontrunners before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Pernambuco shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes holding a lead in several surveys while Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho, and others remain within striking distance amid high undecided shares. Formal campaigning has only recently intensified, with candidates such as Túlio Gadêlha declaring assets and launching regional agendas alongside state allies, yet party coalitions and voter alignments remain fluid ahead of the October vote. This multi-candidate dynamic, combined with limited name recognition for several contenders and shifting alliances across PT, PDT, PL, and PSD, sustains tight implied probabilities across the board. Late developments like additional endorsements, debate performances, or turnout shifts in key regions could quickly separate frontrunners before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pastor Gilvan Costa" at 47%, followed by "Samuel Timoteo" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Pastor Gilvan Costa" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Samuel Timoteo" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.