Michelle Bolsonaro’s recent PL nomination for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats has kept her in a tight contest for first place alongside Leila Barros and Erika Kokay, as shown in August polls placing the top contenders within a few points. Family reconciliation with Flávio Bolsonaro and her pairing with Bia Kicis on the right-wing ticket boosted visibility, yet local name recognition for the former volleyball star and established PT support for Kokay have prevented any decisive lead. With the October election weeks away, undecided voters, turnout patterns in Brasília, and last-minute campaign events remain the main variables that could separate the leaders in the plurality block vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 44%
Sebastião Coelho 44%
Tiago 44%
Professor Guilherme Amorim 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
44%
Sebastião Coelho
44%
Tiago
44%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
44%
Marley
43%
Guto Felício dos Santos
40%
Avenir Rosa
40%
Bia Kicis
40%
Leila do Vôlei
40%
Zanata
40%
David Horn
39%
Erika Kokay
39%
Ronaldo Fonseca
39%
Michelle Bolsonaro 44%
Sebastião Coelho 44%
Tiago 44%
Professor Guilherme Amorim 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$0 Vol.
44%
Sebastião Coelho
$0 Vol.
44%
Tiago
$0 Vol.
44%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$0 Vol.
44%
Marley
$0 Vol.
43%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$0 Vol.
40%
Avenir Rosa
$0 Vol.
40%
Bia Kicis
$0 Vol.
40%
Leila do Vôlei
$0 Vol.
40%
Zanata
$0 Vol.
40%
David Horn
$0 Vol.
39%
Erika Kokay
$0 Vol.
39%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$0 Vol.
39%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s recent PL nomination for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats has kept her in a tight contest for first place alongside Leila Barros and Erika Kokay, as shown in August polls placing the top contenders within a few points. Family reconciliation with Flávio Bolsonaro and her pairing with Bia Kicis on the right-wing ticket boosted visibility, yet local name recognition for the former volleyball star and established PT support for Kokay have prevented any decisive lead. With the October election weeks away, undecided voters, turnout patterns in Brasília, and last-minute campaign events remain the main variables that could separate the leaders in the plurality block vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s recent PL nomination for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats has kept her in a tight contest for first place alongside Leila Barros and Erika Kokay, as shown in August polls placing the top contenders within a few points. Family reconciliation with Flávio Bolsonaro and her pairing with Bia Kicis on the right-wing ticket boosted visibility, yet local name recognition for the former volleyball star and established PT support for Kokay have prevented any decisive lead. With the October election weeks away, undecided voters, turnout patterns in Brasília, and last-minute campaign events remain the main variables that could separate the leaders in the plurality block vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro’s recent PL nomination for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats has kept her in a tight contest for first place alongside Leila Barros and Erika Kokay, as shown in August polls placing the top contenders within a few points. Family reconciliation with Flávio Bolsonaro and her pairing with Bia Kicis on the right-wing ticket boosted visibility, yet local name recognition for the former volleyball star and established PT support for Kokay have prevented any decisive lead. With the October election weeks away, undecided voters, turnout patterns in Brasília, and last-minute campaign events remain the main variables that could separate the leaders in the plurality block vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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