The fragmented field of over a dozen candidates for Sergipe’s two Senate seats has kept the contest for second place tightly contested, with recent polls from Real Time Big Data and other firms showing the top contenders clustered between 9% and 17% in stimulated first- and second-round voting. Incumbent Rogério Carvalho (PT) and emerging names such as Iran Barbosa, André Moura (União), Delegado André David (Republicanos), and Eduardo Amorim continue to trade near or below 45% in the market, reflecting the absence of a clear frontrunner beyond the likely leader. Voter volatility in a state where two-vote mechanics reward coalition-building, combined with ongoing party conventions and limited name recognition for many challengers, sustains the uncertainty. Late polling shifts, formal alliances, or turnout differences among key regions could still reorder the lower tier before October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDelegado Alessandro 26%
Edvaldo 25%
Iran Barbosa 25%
Paulinho da União Tur 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Delegado Alessandro
26%
Edvaldo
25%
Iran Barbosa
25%
Paulinho da União Tur
25%
André Moura
24%
Renatinha
23%
Delegado André David
21%
Rodrigo Valadares
21%
Coronel Rocha
23%
Rogerio Carvalho
22%
Eduardo Amorim
14%
Delegado Alessandro 26%
Edvaldo 25%
Iran Barbosa 25%
Paulinho da União Tur 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Delegado Alessandro
$42 Vol.
26%
Edvaldo
$42 Vol.
25%
Iran Barbosa
$42 Vol.
25%
Paulinho da União Tur
$42 Vol.
25%
André Moura
$42 Vol.
24%
Renatinha
$42 Vol.
23%
Delegado André David
$27 Vol.
21%
Rodrigo Valadares
$42 Vol.
21%
Coronel Rocha
$58 Vol.
23%
Rogerio Carvalho
$58 Vol.
22%
Eduardo Amorim
$60 Vol.
14%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field of over a dozen candidates for Sergipe’s two Senate seats has kept the contest for second place tightly contested, with recent polls from Real Time Big Data and other firms showing the top contenders clustered between 9% and 17% in stimulated first- and second-round voting. Incumbent Rogério Carvalho (PT) and emerging names such as Iran Barbosa, André Moura (União), Delegado André David (Republicanos), and Eduardo Amorim continue to trade near or below 45% in the market, reflecting the absence of a clear frontrunner beyond the likely leader. Voter volatility in a state where two-vote mechanics reward coalition-building, combined with ongoing party conventions and limited name recognition for many challengers, sustains the uncertainty. Late polling shifts, formal alliances, or turnout differences among key regions could still reorder the lower tier before October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ET
Volume
$499End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field of over a dozen candidates for Sergipe’s two Senate seats has kept the contest for second place tightly contested, with recent polls from Real Time Big Data and other firms showing the top contenders clustered between 9% and 17% in stimulated first- and second-round voting. Incumbent Rogério Carvalho (PT) and emerging names such as Iran Barbosa, André Moura (União), Delegado André David (Republicanos), and Eduardo Amorim continue to trade near or below 45% in the market, reflecting the absence of a clear frontrunner beyond the likely leader. Voter volatility in a state where two-vote mechanics reward coalition-building, combined with ongoing party conventions and limited name recognition for many challengers, sustains the uncertainty. Late polling shifts, formal alliances, or turnout differences among key regions could still reorder the lower tier before October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$499End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented field of over a dozen candidates for Sergipe’s two Senate seats has kept the contest for second place tightly contested, with recent polls from Real Time Big Data and other firms showing the top contenders clustered between 9% and 17% in stimulated first- and second-round voting. Incumbent Rogério Carvalho (PT) and emerging names such as Iran Barbosa, André Moura (União), Delegado André David (Republicanos), and Eduardo Amorim continue to trade near or below 45% in the market, reflecting the absence of a clear frontrunner beyond the likely leader. Voter volatility in a state where two-vote mechanics reward coalition-building, combined with ongoing party conventions and limited name recognition for many challengers, sustains the uncertainty. Late polling shifts, formal alliances, or turnout differences among key regions could still reorder the lower tier before October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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