Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval in the upper 30s amid sustained public opposition to U.S. military involvement in the Middle East conflict with Iran and ongoing economic dissatisfaction. Surveys released in mid-May, including those from NYT/Siena and other outlets conducted through May 15, showed approval at or near 37 percent, with subsequent tracking confirming little movement through May 22. The market’s tight clustering around 38.5–38.9 reflects this period of relative stability in the data. Potential shifts could still arise from new economic indicators, diplomatic developments in the conflict, or additional poll releases that alter the final figure used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.5–38.9 100.0%
<37.5 <1%
37.5–37.9 <1%
38.0–38.4 <1%
$36,391 Vol.
$36,391 Vol.
May 22, 2026
<37.5
No
37.5–37.9
No
38.0–38.4
No
38.5–38.9
Yes
39.0–39.4
No
39.5+
No
38.5–38.9 100.0%
<37.5 <1%
37.5–37.9 <1%
38.0–38.4 <1%
$36,391 Vol.
$36,391 Vol.
May 22, 2026
<37.5
$4,162 Vol.
No
37.5–37.9
$6,055 Vol.
No
38.0–38.4
$8,214 Vol.
No
38.5–38.9
$10,402 Vol.
Yes
39.0–39.4
$5,483 Vol.
No
39.5+
$2,074 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 22, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval in the upper 30s amid sustained public opposition to U.S. military involvement in the Middle East conflict with Iran and ongoing economic dissatisfaction. Surveys released in mid-May, including those from NYT/Siena and other outlets conducted through May 15, showed approval at or near 37 percent, with subsequent tracking confirming little movement through May 22. The market’s tight clustering around 38.5–38.9 reflects this period of relative stability in the data. Potential shifts could still arise from new economic indicators, diplomatic developments in the conflict, or additional poll releases that alter the final figure used for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 22, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 10:47 AM ET
Volume
$36,391End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 10:47 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 22, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval in the upper 30s amid sustained public opposition to U.S. military involvement in the Middle East conflict with Iran and ongoing economic dissatisfaction. Surveys released in mid-May, including those from NYT/Siena and other outlets conducted through May 15, showed approval at or near 37 percent, with subsequent tracking confirming little movement through May 22. The market’s tight clustering around 38.5–38.9 reflects this period of relative stability in the data. Potential shifts could still arise from new economic indicators, diplomatic developments in the conflict, or additional poll releases that alter the final figure used for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 22, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$36,391End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 10:47 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval in the upper 30s amid sustained public opposition to U.S. military involvement in the Middle East conflict with Iran and ongoing economic dissatisfaction. Surveys released in mid-May, including those from NYT/Siena and other outlets conducted through May 15, showed approval at or near 37 percent, with subsequent tracking confirming little movement through May 22. The market’s tight clustering around 38.5–38.9 reflects this period of relative stability in the data. Potential shifts could still arise from new economic indicators, diplomatic developments in the conflict, or additional poll releases that alter the final figure used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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