Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price President Trump's job approval rating below 39% on May 8 at near-certainty, mirroring the latest polling averages from Nate Silver's daily bulletin and RealClearPolitics, which pegged it in the mid-30s based on surveys through May 7. This commanding consensus reflects a sharp downward trend fueled by voter discontent over the protracted Iran war, record-high gas and food prices, and inflation handling, as captured in fresh Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos data showing 62% disapproval—Trump's worst in his second term—and Forbes-HarrisX registering just 41% approval. While consistent multi-poll aggregates lock in the sub-39% outcome, a rare post hoc adjustment to the resolution source or outlier late-release poll could theoretically shift it, though historical precedents make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<39.0 100.0%
39.0–39.4 <1%
39.5–39.9 <1%
40.0–40.4 <1%
$41,665 Vol.
$41,665 Vol.
May 9, 2026
<39.0
Yes
39.0–39.4
No
39.5–39.9
No
40.0–40.4
No
40.5–40.9
No
41.0+
No
<39.0 100.0%
39.0–39.4 <1%
39.5–39.9 <1%
40.0–40.4 <1%
$41,665 Vol.
$41,665 Vol.
May 9, 2026
<39.0
$18,095 Vol.
Yes
39.0–39.4
$10,946 Vol.
No
39.5–39.9
$5,838 Vol.
No
40.0–40.4
$2,622 Vol.
No
40.5–40.9
$2,063 Vol.
No
41.0+
$2,102 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price President Trump's job approval rating below 39% on May 8 at near-certainty, mirroring the latest polling averages from Nate Silver's daily bulletin and RealClearPolitics, which pegged it in the mid-30s based on surveys through May 7. This commanding consensus reflects a sharp downward trend fueled by voter discontent over the protracted Iran war, record-high gas and food prices, and inflation handling, as captured in fresh Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos data showing 62% disapproval—Trump's worst in his second term—and Forbes-HarrisX registering just 41% approval. While consistent multi-poll aggregates lock in the sub-39% outcome, a rare post hoc adjustment to the resolution source or outlier late-release poll could theoretically shift it, though historical precedents make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$41,665End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price President Trump's job approval rating below 39% on May 8 at near-certainty, mirroring the latest polling averages from Nate Silver's daily bulletin and RealClearPolitics, which pegged it in the mid-30s based on surveys through May 7. This commanding consensus reflects a sharp downward trend fueled by voter discontent over the protracted Iran war, record-high gas and food prices, and inflation handling, as captured in fresh Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos data showing 62% disapproval—Trump's worst in his second term—and Forbes-HarrisX registering just 41% approval. While consistent multi-poll aggregates lock in the sub-39% outcome, a rare post hoc adjustment to the resolution source or outlier late-release poll could theoretically shift it, though historical precedents make this improbable.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$41,665End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price President Trump's job approval rating below 39% on May 8 at near-certainty, mirroring the latest polling averages from Nate Silver's daily bulletin and RealClearPolitics, which pegged it in the mid-30s based on surveys through May 7. This commanding consensus reflects a sharp downward trend fueled by voter discontent over the protracted Iran war, record-high gas and food prices, and inflation handling, as captured in fresh Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos data showing 62% disapproval—Trump's worst in his second term—and Forbes-HarrisX registering just 41% approval. While consistent multi-poll aggregates lock in the sub-39% outcome, a rare post hoc adjustment to the resolution source or outlier late-release poll could theoretically shift it, though historical precedents make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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