Polymarket traders price near-even implied probabilities around 49% across $1.215–1.355 million bins for Miami's Parcl Labs-derived median home value on April 30, signaling a closely contested outlook amid stable February 2026 index readings near $1.25 million with negligible month-over-month drift. This trader consensus reflects balanced forces: rising inventory to 6+ months' supply tempering upward pressure, offset by resilient luxury demand and cash buyer activity in Miami-Dade single-family sales, up modestly year-over-year per recent reports. Key swing factors include March Parcl data—due soon—and 30-year mortgage rates hovering near 6%, where further declines could spur volume and lift values above $1.32 million, while persistent high listings risk sub-$1.25 million settling. Historical base rates show Miami values resilient versus national softening, underscoring the market's skin-in-the-game equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1.215 - 1.25m 49%
1.25 - 1.285m 49%
1.285 - 1.32m 49%
1.32 - 1.355m 49%
<1.18m
48%
1.18 - 1.215m
48%
1.215 - 1.25m
49%
1.25 - 1.285m
49%
1.285 - 1.32m
49%
1.32 - 1.355m
49%
>1.355m
49%
1.215 - 1.25m 49%
1.25 - 1.285m 49%
1.285 - 1.32m 49%
1.32 - 1.355m 49%
<1.18m
48%
1.18 - 1.215m
48%
1.215 - 1.25m
49%
1.25 - 1.285m
49%
1.285 - 1.32m
49%
1.32 - 1.355m
49%
>1.355m
49%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/23)
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/23)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price near-even implied probabilities around 49% across $1.215–1.355 million bins for Miami's Parcl Labs-derived median home value on April 30, signaling a closely contested outlook amid stable February 2026 index readings near $1.25 million with negligible month-over-month drift. This trader consensus reflects balanced forces: rising inventory to 6+ months' supply tempering upward pressure, offset by resilient luxury demand and cash buyer activity in Miami-Dade single-family sales, up modestly year-over-year per recent reports. Key swing factors include March Parcl data—due soon—and 30-year mortgage rates hovering near 6%, where further declines could spur volume and lift values above $1.32 million, while persistent high listings risk sub-$1.25 million settling. Historical base rates show Miami values resilient versus national softening, underscoring the market's skin-in-the-game equilibrium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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