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Politique·Parti Démocratique

Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ?

icon for Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ?
Politique·Parti Démocratique

Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ?

Oui

55% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

55% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.**Democratic prospects in the four pivotal 2026 Senate contests—Georgia (hold Jon Ossoff), Michigan (open Democratic seat), Maine (challenge Susan Collins), and North Carolina (open Republican seat)—currently reflect a modest edge in trader assessments.** Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5–6 points nationally, consistent with historical midterm patterns under a Republican president. This environment has supported competitive or favorable positioning in these battlegrounds, reinforced by strong Democratic fundraising, candidate recruitment, and primary outcomes that have clarified fields in North Carolina and elsewhere. The map requires Democrats to net four seats overall for majority control, making success across this core group a central path. Ongoing polling in individual races, primary results through summer, and any shifts in economic conditions or approval ratings before November remain the main variables that could adjust implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$8,975
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.**Democratic prospects in the four pivotal 2026 Senate contests—Georgia (hold Jon Ossoff), Michigan (open Democratic seat), Maine (challenge Susan Collins), and North Carolina (open Republican seat)—currently reflect a modest edge in trader assessments.** Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5–6 points nationally, consistent with historical midterm patterns under a Republican president. This environment has supported competitive or favorable positioning in these battlegrounds, reinforced by strong Democratic fundraising, candidate recruitment, and primary outcomes that have clarified fields in North Carolina and elsewhere. The map requires Democrats to net four seats overall for majority control, making success across this core group a central path. Ongoing polling in individual races, primary results through summer, and any shifts in economic conditions or approval ratings before November remain the main variables that could adjust implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$8,975
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.

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Questions fréquentes

« Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Les démocrates gagneront-ils les quatre courses sénatoriales clés ? » à 55%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 55¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 13, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ? » est « Les démocrates gagneront-ils les quatre courses sénatoriales clés ? » à 55%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les démocrates remporteront-ils toutes les « quatre principales » courses au Sénat ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.