The closely balanced 52% trader consensus on Senate conviction of Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from the two-thirds threshold requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges to remove her from office on charges including confidential funds misuse, unexplained wealth, and grave threats. The trial, which opened July 6 after the House's May transmission of articles, features a lengthy schedule of up to 92 hearing days amid ongoing evidence presentation on Office of the Vice President disbursements and related matters. Duterte-aligned blocs in the Senate, combined with absences or detentions of several members, create uncertainty around vote counts, while the Supreme Court's dismissal of procedural challenges has allowed proceedings to advance without interruption. Recent testimony and liquidation reports could sway undecided senators either direction before the December 31 resolution deadline, though entrenched alliances and the high bar for conviction sustain competitive odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
52% chance
$12,038 Vol.
$12,038 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
52% chance
$12,038 Vol.
$12,038 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely balanced 52% trader consensus on Senate conviction of Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from the two-thirds threshold requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges to remove her from office on charges including confidential funds misuse, unexplained wealth, and grave threats. The trial, which opened July 6 after the House's May transmission of articles, features a lengthy schedule of up to 92 hearing days amid ongoing evidence presentation on Office of the Vice President disbursements and related matters. Duterte-aligned blocs in the Senate, combined with absences or detentions of several members, create uncertainty around vote counts, while the Supreme Court's dismissal of procedural challenges has allowed proceedings to advance without interruption. Recent testimony and liquidation reports could sway undecided senators either direction before the December 31 resolution deadline, though entrenched alliances and the high bar for conviction sustain competitive odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,038End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The closely balanced 52% trader consensus on Senate conviction of Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from the two-thirds threshold requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges to remove her from office on charges including confidential funds misuse, unexplained wealth, and grave threats. The trial, which opened July 6 after the House's May transmission of articles, features a lengthy schedule of up to 92 hearing days amid ongoing evidence presentation on Office of the Vice President disbursements and related matters. Duterte-aligned blocs in the Senate, combined with absences or detentions of several members, create uncertainty around vote counts, while the Supreme Court's dismissal of procedural challenges has allowed proceedings to advance without interruption. Recent testimony and liquidation reports could sway undecided senators either direction before the December 31 resolution deadline, though entrenched alliances and the high bar for conviction sustain competitive odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,038End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely balanced 52% trader consensus on Senate conviction of Vice President Sara Duterte stems primarily from the two-thirds threshold requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges to remove her from office on charges including confidential funds misuse, unexplained wealth, and grave threats. The trial, which opened July 6 after the House's May transmission of articles, features a lengthy schedule of up to 92 hearing days amid ongoing evidence presentation on Office of the Vice President disbursements and related matters. Duterte-aligned blocs in the Senate, combined with absences or detentions of several members, create uncertainty around vote counts, while the Supreme Court's dismissal of procedural challenges has allowed proceedings to advance without interruption. Recent testimony and liquidation reports could sway undecided senators either direction before the December 31 resolution deadline, though entrenched alliances and the high bar for conviction sustain competitive odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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