Recent US-Iran framework negotiations, including a draft memorandum covering sanctions relief on oil exports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initial steps toward broader nuclear discussions, represent the dominant near-term influence on the rial. These developments follow earlier conflict-related disruptions and have prompted market expectations of phased sanctions easing, which could support Iranian oil revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Official and open-market USD/IRR rates currently trade in the 1.37–1.56 million range, with limited movement in the past week amid cautious trader positioning. Persistent domestic inflation and structural economic pressures continue to exert downward pressure on the rial, but the immediate diplomatic timeline—final deal elements potentially unfolding over the next 60 days—constrains sharp further depreciation before June 30 resolution. Prediction market pricing reflects this balance, with higher-rate thresholds carrying lower implied probabilities given the sanctions-relief catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$197,792 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
↑ 2.0M
No
↑ 1.9M
No
↑ 1.8M
No
↓ 1.7M
Yes
↓ 1.6M
Yes
↓ 1.5M
No
$197,792 Vol.
↑ 2.0M
$11,364 Vol.
No
↑ 1.9M
$26,704 Vol.
No
↑ 1.8M
$41,836 Vol.
No
↓ 1.7M
$49,556 Vol.
Yes
↓ 1.6M
$27,802 Vol.
Yes
↓ 1.5M
$40,530 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent US-Iran framework negotiations, including a draft memorandum covering sanctions relief on oil exports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initial steps toward broader nuclear discussions, represent the dominant near-term influence on the rial. These developments follow earlier conflict-related disruptions and have prompted market expectations of phased sanctions easing, which could support Iranian oil revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Official and open-market USD/IRR rates currently trade in the 1.37–1.56 million range, with limited movement in the past week amid cautious trader positioning. Persistent domestic inflation and structural economic pressures continue to exert downward pressure on the rial, but the immediate diplomatic timeline—final deal elements potentially unfolding over the next 60 days—constrains sharp further depreciation before June 30 resolution. Prediction market pricing reflects this balance, with higher-rate thresholds carrying lower implied probabilities given the sanctions-relief catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$197,792End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent US-Iran framework negotiations, including a draft memorandum covering sanctions relief on oil exports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initial steps toward broader nuclear discussions, represent the dominant near-term influence on the rial. These developments follow earlier conflict-related disruptions and have prompted market expectations of phased sanctions easing, which could support Iranian oil revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Official and open-market USD/IRR rates currently trade in the 1.37–1.56 million range, with limited movement in the past week amid cautious trader positioning. Persistent domestic inflation and structural economic pressures continue to exert downward pressure on the rial, but the immediate diplomatic timeline—final deal elements potentially unfolding over the next 60 days—constrains sharp further depreciation before June 30 resolution. Prediction market pricing reflects this balance, with higher-rate thresholds carrying lower implied probabilities given the sanctions-relief catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$197,792End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent US-Iran framework negotiations, including a draft memorandum covering sanctions relief on oil exports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initial steps toward broader nuclear discussions, represent the dominant near-term influence on the rial. These developments follow earlier conflict-related disruptions and have prompted market expectations of phased sanctions easing, which could support Iranian oil revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Official and open-market USD/IRR rates currently trade in the 1.37–1.56 million range, with limited movement in the past week amid cautious trader positioning. Persistent domestic inflation and structural economic pressures continue to exert downward pressure on the rial, but the immediate diplomatic timeline—final deal elements potentially unfolding over the next 60 days—constrains sharp further depreciation before June 30 resolution. Prediction market pricing reflects this balance, with higher-rate thresholds carrying lower implied probabilities given the sanctions-relief catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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