Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 reveals global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly between the record-shattering levels of April 2024 (warmest on record at ~1.6°C above 1991-2020 baseline) and April 2025 (second-warmest), while exceeding April 2023's prior third-place mark, anchoring trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for third hottest overall. Lingering La Niña influences from late 2025 into early 2026 have tempered extremes by roughly 0.1-0.2°C relative to El Niño-fueled prior years, yet the shift to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistent anthropogenic warming sustain elevated readings. Recent NOAA ENSO diagnostics and Copernicus March rankings (fourth-warmest globally) reinforce this positioning; full-month rankings from official agencies expected early May could shift markets amid inherent forecast uncertainty in the latter half.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
3e plus chaud 63%
4e ou moins 16%
2e plus chaud 16%
Le plus chaud 4.9%
$70,606 Vol.
$70,606 Vol.
10 mai 2026
Le plus chaud
5%
2e plus chaud
16%
3e plus chaud
63%
4e ou moins
16%
3e plus chaud 63%
4e ou moins 16%
2e plus chaud 16%
Le plus chaud 4.9%
$70,606 Vol.
$70,606 Vol.
10 mai 2026
Le plus chaud
$7,367 Vol.
5%
2e plus chaud
$21,067 Vol.
16%
3e plus chaud
$14,449 Vol.
63%
4e ou moins
$27,722 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 reveals global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly between the record-shattering levels of April 2024 (warmest on record at ~1.6°C above 1991-2020 baseline) and April 2025 (second-warmest), while exceeding April 2023's prior third-place mark, anchoring trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for third hottest overall. Lingering La Niña influences from late 2025 into early 2026 have tempered extremes by roughly 0.1-0.2°C relative to El Niño-fueled prior years, yet the shift to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistent anthropogenic warming sustain elevated readings. Recent NOAA ENSO diagnostics and Copernicus March rankings (fourth-warmest globally) reinforce this positioning; full-month rankings from official agencies expected early May could shift markets amid inherent forecast uncertainty in the latter half.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$70,606Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 reveals global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly between the record-shattering levels of April 2024 (warmest on record at ~1.6°C above 1991-2020 baseline) and April 2025 (second-warmest), while exceeding April 2023's prior third-place mark, anchoring trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for third hottest overall. Lingering La Niña influences from late 2025 into early 2026 have tempered extremes by roughly 0.1-0.2°C relative to El Niño-fueled prior years, yet the shift to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistent anthropogenic warming sustain elevated readings. Recent NOAA ENSO diagnostics and Copernicus March rankings (fourth-warmest globally) reinforce this positioning; full-month rankings from official agencies expected early May could shift markets amid inherent forecast uncertainty in the latter half.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$70,606Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 reveals global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly between the record-shattering levels of April 2024 (warmest on record at ~1.6°C above 1991-2020 baseline) and April 2025 (second-warmest), while exceeding April 2023's prior third-place mark, anchoring trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for third hottest overall. Lingering La Niña influences from late 2025 into early 2026 have tempered extremes by roughly 0.1-0.2°C relative to El Niño-fueled prior years, yet the shift to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% NOAA probability through June) and persistent anthropogenic warming sustain elevated readings. Recent NOAA ENSO diagnostics and Copernicus March rankings (fourth-warmest globally) reinforce this positioning; full-month rankings from official agencies expected early May could shift markets amid inherent forecast uncertainty in the latter half.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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