The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—while eliminating all Republican contenders, setting up a November 3 general election between members of the same party. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic based on its partisan composition, voter registration edge, and Thompson's prior margins exceeding 60 percent. Strong Democratic fundraising and endorsements further reinforce the position. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 96 percent implied probability of winning the seat, consistent with the structural reality that the winner must be a Democrat. A Republican victory would require an extraordinary development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification after the primary, both of which remain remote given the timeline and procedural rules.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
96%
Parti républicain
4%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Parti républicain
$7,806 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—while eliminating all Republican contenders, setting up a November 3 general election between members of the same party. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic based on its partisan composition, voter registration edge, and Thompson's prior margins exceeding 60 percent. Strong Democratic fundraising and endorsements further reinforce the position. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 96 percent implied probability of winning the seat, consistent with the structural reality that the winner must be a Democrat. A Republican victory would require an extraordinary development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification after the primary, both of which remain remote given the timeline and procedural rules.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,721Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—while eliminating all Republican contenders, setting up a November 3 general election between members of the same party. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic based on its partisan composition, voter registration edge, and Thompson's prior margins exceeding 60 percent. Strong Democratic fundraising and endorsements further reinforce the position. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 96 percent implied probability of winning the seat, consistent with the structural reality that the winner must be a Democrat. A Republican victory would require an extraordinary development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification after the primary, both of which remain remote given the timeline and procedural rules.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,721Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—while eliminating all Republican contenders, setting up a November 3 general election between members of the same party. Multiple forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic based on its partisan composition, voter registration edge, and Thompson's prior margins exceeding 60 percent. Strong Democratic fundraising and endorsements further reinforce the position. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 96 percent implied probability of winning the seat, consistent with the structural reality that the winner must be a Democrat. A Republican victory would require an extraordinary development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification after the primary, both of which remain remote given the timeline and procedural rules.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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