Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 3rd congressional district to a solidly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the Cook Political Report's Solid D rating and a historical shift from a narrow Republican edge to a 10-point Democratic presidential margin. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the neighboring district and advanced from the June 2 nonpartisan primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, who trails in name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic general-election outcome on November 3, 2026, while the low Republican share accounts for the district's transformed voter base and limited competitive path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$26,359 Vol.
$26,359 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
86%
Parti républicain
6%
$26,359 Vol.
$26,359 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$14,173 Vol.
86%
Parti républicain
$12,187 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 3rd congressional district to a solidly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the Cook Political Report's Solid D rating and a historical shift from a narrow Republican edge to a 10-point Democratic presidential margin. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the neighboring district and advanced from the June 2 nonpartisan primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, who trails in name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic general-election outcome on November 3, 2026, while the low Republican share accounts for the district's transformed voter base and limited competitive path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,359Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 3rd congressional district to a solidly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the Cook Political Report's Solid D rating and a historical shift from a narrow Republican edge to a 10-point Democratic presidential margin. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the neighboring district and advanced from the June 2 nonpartisan primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, who trails in name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic general-election outcome on November 3, 2026, while the low Republican share accounts for the district's transformed voter base and limited competitive path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,359Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 3rd congressional district to a solidly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in the Cook Political Report's Solid D rating and a historical shift from a narrow Republican edge to a 10-point Democratic presidential margin. Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the neighboring district and advanced from the June 2 nonpartisan primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, who trails in name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic general-election outcome on November 3, 2026, while the low Republican share accounts for the district's transformed voter base and limited competitive path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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