Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have driven euro-area inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, well above the ECB's 2% target, with staff projections now showing 2.6% average inflation for the full year. The Governing Council has held the deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its March and April meetings while adopting a strictly data-dependent stance, underscoring upside risks to price stability amid subdued 0.9% growth forecasts. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-2026, reflecting trader consensus that persistent inflationary pressures favor sustained or tighter policy over any easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$27,989 Vol.
$27,989 Vol.
Oui
$27,989 Vol.
$27,989 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have driven euro-area inflation to 3.0% in April 2026, well above the ECB's 2% target, with staff projections now showing 2.6% average inflation for the full year. The Governing Council has held the deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its March and April meetings while adopting a strictly data-dependent stance, underscoring upside risks to price stability amid subdued 0.9% growth forecasts. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-2026, reflecting trader consensus that persistent inflationary pressures favor sustained or tighter policy over any easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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