Elevated euro-area inflation projections, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted the ECB Governing Council toward a data-dependent tightening bias after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent in April 2026. Recent staff forecasts and economist surveys anticipate at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings, aligning with futures pricing that assigns near-certain odds of a 2026 rate increase. This outlook underpins the 86.5 percent implied probability against any cut before year-end, as traders weigh upside inflation risks and downside growth effects from the same factors. Softer core inflation readings or rapid conflict de-escalation remain the primary scenarios that could reopen easing discussions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted the ECB Governing Council toward a data-dependent tightening bias after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent in April 2026. Recent staff forecasts and economist surveys anticipate at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings, aligning with futures pricing that assigns near-certain odds of a 2026 rate increase. This outlook underpins the 86.5 percent implied probability against any cut before year-end, as traders weigh upside inflation risks and downside growth effects from the same factors. Softer core inflation readings or rapid conflict de-escalation remain the primary scenarios that could reopen easing discussions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,063Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted the ECB Governing Council toward a data-dependent tightening bias after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent in April 2026. Recent staff forecasts and economist surveys anticipate at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings, aligning with futures pricing that assigns near-certain odds of a 2026 rate increase. This outlook underpins the 86.5 percent implied probability against any cut before year-end, as traders weigh upside inflation risks and downside growth effects from the same factors. Softer core inflation readings or rapid conflict de-escalation remain the primary scenarios that could reopen easing discussions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,063Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted the ECB Governing Council toward a data-dependent tightening bias after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent in April 2026. Recent staff forecasts and economist surveys anticipate at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings, aligning with futures pricing that assigns near-certain odds of a 2026 rate increase. This outlook underpins the 86.5 percent implied probability against any cut before year-end, as traders weigh upside inflation risks and downside growth effects from the same factors. Softer core inflation readings or rapid conflict de-escalation remain the primary scenarios that could reopen easing discussions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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