Elevated euro-area inflation pressures stemming from Middle East energy price spikes have shifted ECB policy expectations firmly away from easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This data-dependent tightening stance underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path, but current trader consensus reflects caution favoring higher or stable rates through December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$28,163 Vol.
$28,163 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$28,163 Vol.
$28,163 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation pressures stemming from Middle East energy price spikes have shifted ECB policy expectations firmly away from easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This data-dependent tightening stance underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path, but current trader consensus reflects caution favoring higher or stable rates through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,163Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation pressures stemming from Middle East energy price spikes have shifted ECB policy expectations firmly away from easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This data-dependent tightening stance underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path, but current trader consensus reflects caution favoring higher or stable rates through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,163Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation pressures stemming from Middle East energy price spikes have shifted ECB policy expectations firmly away from easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This data-dependent tightening stance underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path, but current trader consensus reflects caution favoring higher or stable rates through December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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