Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 17-24, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent pace of 35-41 daily posts seen in the ongoing April 10-17 market (205 posts through 71% elapsed). This stems from resolved prior weeks like April 13-15 at 33 total and early April dailies in the 10-19 range, tempered by spikes during viral moments such as Starship V3 static fire success, Grok's top healthcare benchmark, and commentary on South African anti-White rhetoric and California fraud probes. Key swing factors include upcoming SpaceX tests or political flare-ups, which historically amplify his cultural commentary output, keeping mid-200s bins neck-and-neck amid high unpredictability in his real-time engagement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour260-279 17%
240-259 16%
280-299 15%
300-319 14%
$557,123 Vol.
$557,123 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
4%
200-219
8%
220-239
10%
240-259
16%
260-279
17%
280-299
15%
300-319
14%
320-339
9%
340-359
5%
360-379
4%
380-399
2%
400-419
2%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
260-279 17%
240-259 16%
280-299 15%
300-319 14%
$557,123 Vol.
$557,123 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
4%
200-219
8%
220-239
10%
240-259
16%
260-279
17%
280-299
15%
300-319
14%
320-339
9%
340-359
5%
360-379
4%
380-399
2%
400-419
2%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 17-24, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent pace of 35-41 daily posts seen in the ongoing April 10-17 market (205 posts through 71% elapsed). This stems from resolved prior weeks like April 13-15 at 33 total and early April dailies in the 10-19 range, tempered by spikes during viral moments such as Starship V3 static fire success, Grok's top healthcare benchmark, and commentary on South African anti-White rhetoric and California fraud probes. Key swing factors include upcoming SpaceX tests or political flare-ups, which historically amplify his cultural commentary output, keeping mid-200s bins neck-and-neck amid high unpredictability in his real-time engagement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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