Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 31°C high temperature in Chengdu on May 5, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather, showing peak readings near Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport— the market's official resolution station—approaching 30–31°C by late afternoon under mostly clear skies. This reflects a sharp warming trend above early-May climatological averages of 26–27°C, following cooler highs around 24–25°C earlier in the week amid shifting high-pressure patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover suppressing the peak or a brief heat burst pushing readings to 32°C+, with final confirmation pending end-of-day official records from monitoring agencies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 5?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 5?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$73,992 Vol.
$73,992 Vol.
5 mai 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$73,992 Vol.
$73,992 Vol.
5 mai 2026
23°C or below
$3,659 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,241 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,090 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,159 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,549 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,394 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,551 Vol.
No
30°C
$10,087 Vol.
No
31°C
$11,619 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$7,175 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$13,468 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 31°C high temperature in Chengdu on May 5, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather, showing peak readings near Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport— the market's official resolution station—approaching 30–31°C by late afternoon under mostly clear skies. This reflects a sharp warming trend above early-May climatological averages of 26–27°C, following cooler highs around 24–25°C earlier in the week amid shifting high-pressure patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover suppressing the peak or a brief heat burst pushing readings to 32°C+, with final confirmation pending end-of-day official records from monitoring agencies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$73,992Date de fin
5 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 31°C high temperature in Chengdu on May 5, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather, showing peak readings near Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport— the market's official resolution station—approaching 30–31°C by late afternoon under mostly clear skies. This reflects a sharp warming trend above early-May climatological averages of 26–27°C, following cooler highs around 24–25°C earlier in the week amid shifting high-pressure patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover suppressing the peak or a brief heat burst pushing readings to 32°C+, with final confirmation pending end-of-day official records from monitoring agencies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$73,992Date de fin
5 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 31°C high temperature in Chengdu on May 5, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather, showing peak readings near Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport— the market's official resolution station—approaching 30–31°C by late afternoon under mostly clear skies. This reflects a sharp warming trend above early-May climatological averages of 26–27°C, following cooler highs around 24–25°C earlier in the week amid shifting high-pressure patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon cloud cover suppressing the peak or a brief heat burst pushing readings to 32°C+, with final confirmation pending end-of-day official records from monitoring agencies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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