Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chicago le 5 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Chicago le 5 juillet ?
76-77°F 100.0%
71°F ou moins <1%
72-73 °F <1%
74-75 °F <1%
$84,905 Vol.
$84,905 Vol.
5 juil. 2026
71°F ou moins
Non
72-73 °F
Non
74-75 °F
Non
76-77°F
Oui
78-79 °F
Non
80-81°F
Non
82-83°F
Non
84-85 °F
Non
86-87°F
Non
88-89 °F
Non
90°F ou plus
Non
76-77°F 100.0%
71°F ou moins <1%
72-73 °F <1%
74-75 °F <1%
$84,905 Vol.
$84,905 Vol.
5 juil. 2026
71°F ou moins
$10,459 Vol.
Non
72-73 °F
$19,839 Vol.
Non
74-75 °F
$10,994 Vol.
Non
76-77°F
$6,934 Vol.
Oui
78-79 °F
$10,150 Vol.
Non
80-81°F
$4,576 Vol.
Non
82-83°F
$4,746 Vol.
Non
84-85 °F
$4,288 Vol.
Non
86-87°F
$3,847 Vol.
Non
88-89 °F
$3,966 Vol.
Non
90°F ou plus
$5,108 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$84,905Date de fin
5 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$84,905Date de fin
5 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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