Recent cooling after Italy’s early-August heatwave, which pushed Milan highs near 39–40 °C under a strong African high-pressure ridge, has shifted model consensus toward 23–24 °C for August 21. Short-range guidance from ECMWF and GFS now indicates increased low-level moisture and weak instability, favoring scattered afternoon thunderstorms that could limit peak insolation and cap temperatures near or just below the seasonal average of 28–30 °C. Subtle differences in simulated cloud cover, timing of any convective outflow, and boundary-layer mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–25 °C, with lower probabilities assigned to 26 °C or higher absent renewed subsidence. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds.