Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the German Weather Service and ECMWF indicate a likely daily high near 21–22°C for Munich on August 21, driven by light showers or thundery activity and moderate southwesterly flow that limits strong solar heating. Forecast uncertainty arises from differences in predicted cloud cover, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2°C depending on whether showers arrive before or after peak insolation. Historical August climatology shows typical highs around 22°C, providing context for why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around the leading outcomes while spreading modestly toward 20°C or 23°C amid model variability. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these resolution criteria for the market.