Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to a mostly cloudy day on August 19 with a projected maximum of 33°C, positioning the 31–32°C range as the core driver of current market-implied odds near 60% combined. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers observed on recent days, including a 26°C peak on August 16, have tempered expectations despite the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by an expanded Pacific high-pressure system. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo typically add 1–2°C to regional readings, yet model divergence on timing of any clearing introduces uncertainty around exact thresholds. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily ahead of the next JMA update, with lower-probability outcomes above 33°C reflecting historical variability in late-August intensification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 19 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 19 août ?
31°C 43%
30°C 24%
32°C 19%
29°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
8%
30°C
24%
31°C
43%
32°C
19%
33°C
5%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 43%
30°C 24%
32°C 19%
29°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
25°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$448 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$542 Vol.
1%
28°C
$500 Vol.
2%
29°C
$282 Vol.
8%
30°C
$585 Vol.
24%
31°C
$1,243 Vol.
43%
32°C
$244 Vol.
19%
33°C
$389 Vol.
5%
34°C
$184 Vol.
3%
35°C or higher
$133 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to a mostly cloudy day on August 19 with a projected maximum of 33°C, positioning the 31–32°C range as the core driver of current market-implied odds near 60% combined. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers observed on recent days, including a 26°C peak on August 16, have tempered expectations despite the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by an expanded Pacific high-pressure system. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo typically add 1–2°C to regional readings, yet model divergence on timing of any clearing introduces uncertainty around exact thresholds. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily ahead of the next JMA update, with lower-probability outcomes above 33°C reflecting historical variability in late-August intensification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,751Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to a mostly cloudy day on August 19 with a projected maximum of 33°C, positioning the 31–32°C range as the core driver of current market-implied odds near 60% combined. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers observed on recent days, including a 26°C peak on August 16, have tempered expectations despite the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by an expanded Pacific high-pressure system. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo typically add 1–2°C to regional readings, yet model divergence on timing of any clearing introduces uncertainty around exact thresholds. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily ahead of the next JMA update, with lower-probability outcomes above 33°C reflecting historical variability in late-August intensification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,751Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts point to a mostly cloudy day on August 19 with a projected maximum of 33°C, positioning the 31–32°C range as the core driver of current market-implied odds near 60% combined. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers observed on recent days, including a 26°C peak on August 16, have tempered expectations despite the broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures driven by an expanded Pacific high-pressure system. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo typically add 1–2°C to regional readings, yet model divergence on timing of any clearing introduces uncertainty around exact thresholds. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily ahead of the next JMA update, with lower-probability outcomes above 33°C reflecting historical variability in late-August intensification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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