The closely matched trader odds favoring 28–29°C for Manila’s August 19 high reflect the southwest monsoon’s ongoing suppression of daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and scattered rains across Luzon. Official PAGASA guidance shows forecast maxima of 29–31°C with 60% rain chances, consistent with recent observations of 27.8°C under similar conditions and climatological August averages near 30°C when monsoon flow intensifies. Reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from thunderstorms differentiate these lower outcomes from warmer scenarios, while model consensus on monsoon strength and steering patterns limits upside potential. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether localized clearing allows brief spikes toward 30°C or maintains the cooler bias.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 19 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 19 août ?
28°C 34%
29°C 34%
30°C 16%
27°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
22°C ou moins
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
10%
28°C
34%
29°C
34%
30°C
16%
31°C
5%
32°C ou plus
3%
28°C 34%
29°C 34%
30°C 16%
27°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
22°C ou moins
$186 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$186 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$34 Vol.
2%
26°C
$25 Vol.
4%
27°C
$12 Vol.
10%
28°C
$36 Vol.
34%
29°C
$58 Vol.
34%
30°C
$286 Vol.
16%
31°C
$68 Vol.
5%
32°C ou plus
$65 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched trader odds favoring 28–29°C for Manila’s August 19 high reflect the southwest monsoon’s ongoing suppression of daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and scattered rains across Luzon. Official PAGASA guidance shows forecast maxima of 29–31°C with 60% rain chances, consistent with recent observations of 27.8°C under similar conditions and climatological August averages near 30°C when monsoon flow intensifies. Reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from thunderstorms differentiate these lower outcomes from warmer scenarios, while model consensus on monsoon strength and steering patterns limits upside potential. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether localized clearing allows brief spikes toward 30°C or maintains the cooler bias.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,148Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched trader odds favoring 28–29°C for Manila’s August 19 high reflect the southwest monsoon’s ongoing suppression of daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and scattered rains across Luzon. Official PAGASA guidance shows forecast maxima of 29–31°C with 60% rain chances, consistent with recent observations of 27.8°C under similar conditions and climatological August averages near 30°C when monsoon flow intensifies. Reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from thunderstorms differentiate these lower outcomes from warmer scenarios, while model consensus on monsoon strength and steering patterns limits upside potential. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether localized clearing allows brief spikes toward 30°C or maintains the cooler bias.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,148Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched trader odds favoring 28–29°C for Manila’s August 19 high reflect the southwest monsoon’s ongoing suppression of daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and scattered rains across Luzon. Official PAGASA guidance shows forecast maxima of 29–31°C with 60% rain chances, consistent with recent observations of 27.8°C under similar conditions and climatological August averages near 30°C when monsoon flow intensifies. Reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from thunderstorms differentiate these lower outcomes from warmer scenarios, while model consensus on monsoon strength and steering patterns limits upside potential. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether localized clearing allows brief spikes toward 30°C or maintains the cooler bias.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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