Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Hong Kong le 17 août ?
La température la plus basse à Hong Kong le 17 août ?
28°C 99.4%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
23°C ou moins <1%
$55,387 Vol.
$55,387 Vol.
17 août 2026
23°C ou moins
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
99%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C ou plus
<1%
28°C 99.4%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
23°C ou moins <1%
$55,387 Vol.
$55,387 Vol.
17 août 2026
23°C ou moins
$503 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,056 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,802 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$8,231 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$7,333 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$16,965 Vol.
99%
29°C
$7,953 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,611 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$501 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$491 Vol.
<1%
33°C ou plus
$941 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$55,387Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$55,387Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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