Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including consensus runs aligned with timeanddate and Met Office guidance, point to a high of 20–22 °C in Warsaw on August 19 under increasing cloud cover and late-day showers. These conditions follow a mid-August cooling trend after earlier summer warmth, with northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and limiting diurnal heating. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21 °C (39 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 22 °C (22 %) reflects this model agreement on suppressed maxima near the seasonal average, while lower probabilities for 23 °C or above capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or wind shifts. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours will further refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 19 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Varsovie le 19 août ?
21°C 40%
20°C 23%
22°C 22%
19°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
7%
20°C
23%
21°C
40%
22°C
22%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 40%
20°C 23%
22°C 22%
19°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 août 2026
14°C or below
$191 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$56 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$398 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$333 Vol.
3%
19°C
$258 Vol.
7%
20°C
$134 Vol.
23%
21°C
$110 Vol.
40%
22°C
$1,116 Vol.
22%
23°C
$30 Vol.
6%
24°C or higher
$24 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including consensus runs aligned with timeanddate and Met Office guidance, point to a high of 20–22 °C in Warsaw on August 19 under increasing cloud cover and late-day showers. These conditions follow a mid-August cooling trend after earlier summer warmth, with northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and limiting diurnal heating. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21 °C (39 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 22 °C (22 %) reflects this model agreement on suppressed maxima near the seasonal average, while lower probabilities for 23 °C or above capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or wind shifts. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours will further refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,825Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including consensus runs aligned with timeanddate and Met Office guidance, point to a high of 20–22 °C in Warsaw on August 19 under increasing cloud cover and late-day showers. These conditions follow a mid-August cooling trend after earlier summer warmth, with northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and limiting diurnal heating. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21 °C (39 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 22 °C (22 %) reflects this model agreement on suppressed maxima near the seasonal average, while lower probabilities for 23 °C or above capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or wind shifts. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours will further refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,825Date de fin
19 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including consensus runs aligned with timeanddate and Met Office guidance, point to a high of 20–22 °C in Warsaw on August 19 under increasing cloud cover and late-day showers. These conditions follow a mid-August cooling trend after earlier summer warmth, with northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and limiting diurnal heating. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21 °C (39 %), 20 °C (22.5 %), and 22 °C (22 %) reflects this model agreement on suppressed maxima near the seasonal average, while lower probabilities for 23 °C or above capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or wind shifts. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours will further refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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