Recent MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 10–11 °C on August 18, driven by lingering southerly flows and cooler-than-average conditions following a mid-August polar air outbreak. Seasonal outlooks assign the highest probability to near-average August temperatures (around 12 °C climatological mean), yet short-term model consensus favors modest daytime readings amid persistent cloud and showers. Traders appear to weight the latest official guidance heavily, concentrating implied probability on 11 °C while leaving room for slight warming if winds shift. Updated model runs and morning briefings from MetService and NIWA over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Wellington le 18 août ?
Température la plus élevée à Wellington le 18 août ?
11°C 54%
12°C 36%
10°C 8%
13°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 août 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
54%
12°C
36%
13°C
5%
14°C
2%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 54%
12°C 36%
10°C 8%
13°C 5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 août 2026
6°C or below
$236 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$236 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$56 Vol.
1%
9°C
$80 Vol.
3%
10°C
$155 Vol.
8%
11°C
$1,253 Vol.
54%
12°C
$1,753 Vol.
36%
13°C
$182 Vol.
5%
14°C
$150 Vol.
2%
15°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 10–11 °C on August 18, driven by lingering southerly flows and cooler-than-average conditions following a mid-August polar air outbreak. Seasonal outlooks assign the highest probability to near-average August temperatures (around 12 °C climatological mean), yet short-term model consensus favors modest daytime readings amid persistent cloud and showers. Traders appear to weight the latest official guidance heavily, concentrating implied probability on 11 °C while leaving room for slight warming if winds shift. Updated model runs and morning briefings from MetService and NIWA over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,422Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 10–11 °C on August 18, driven by lingering southerly flows and cooler-than-average conditions following a mid-August polar air outbreak. Seasonal outlooks assign the highest probability to near-average August temperatures (around 12 °C climatological mean), yet short-term model consensus favors modest daytime readings amid persistent cloud and showers. Traders appear to weight the latest official guidance heavily, concentrating implied probability on 11 °C while leaving room for slight warming if winds shift. Updated model runs and morning briefings from MetService and NIWA over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,422Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 10–11 °C on August 18, driven by lingering southerly flows and cooler-than-average conditions following a mid-August polar air outbreak. Seasonal outlooks assign the highest probability to near-average August temperatures (around 12 °C climatological mean), yet short-term model consensus favors modest daytime readings amid persistent cloud and showers. Traders appear to weight the latest official guidance heavily, concentrating implied probability on 11 °C while leaving room for slight warming if winds shift. Updated model runs and morning briefings from MetService and NIWA over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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