Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Shanghai le 16 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Shanghai le 16 août ?
30°C 40%
31°C 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
25%
30°C
40%
31°C
25%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
31°C 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
25°C or below
$324 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$48 Vol.
2%
28°C
$206 Vol.
5%
29°C
$122 Vol.
25%
30°C
$111 Vol.
40%
31°C
$399 Vol.
25%
32°C
$335 Vol.
6%
33°C
$193 Vol.
2%
34°C
$19 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$39 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,821Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,821Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C in Shanghai on August 16 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities of 39.5% and 25.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature a weakened East Asian monsoon, light southerly flow, and urban heat island effects that often push daily highs 1–2°C above regional baselines of around 31°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with potential for slight cooling from scattered showers or increased cloud cover, though no strong frontal systems are expected. Historical August maxima average near 32°C, yet short-term forecast uncertainty remains due to rapid changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these stable signals heavily ahead of final observational data from local stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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