**Strong northwesterly flow is the dominant driver positioning 16°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 2 maximum.** Multiple operational models, including recent runs from MetService and international guidance, show afternoon temperatures peaking near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies and gusty NW winds of 40–60 km/h. This setup favors modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 13–14°C while limiting further rises due to persistent cloud and mixing. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–17°C reflects trader recognition of typical forecast uncertainty ranges in springtime southerly latitudes, where small shifts in wind strength or timing of any clearing can alter the daily peak by 1–2°C. No major model divergence or incoming cold front appears in the next 24–48 hours that would favor outcomes outside this narrow band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Wellington le 2 septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Wellington le 2 septembre ?
16°C 68%
17°C 20%
15°C 13%
18°C 4%
NOUVEAU
$18,579 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$18,579 Vol.
2 sept. 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
13%
16°C
68%
17°C
20%
18°C
4%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 68%
17°C 20%
15°C 13%
18°C 4%
NOUVEAU
$18,579 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$18,579 Vol.
2 sept. 2026
10°C or below
$315 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$375 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$407 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$839 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,513 Vol.
2%
15°C
$5,926 Vol.
13%
16°C
$4,508 Vol.
68%
17°C
$2,505 Vol.
20%
18°C
$1,222 Vol.
4%
19°C
$746 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$222 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly flow is the dominant driver positioning 16°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 2 maximum.** Multiple operational models, including recent runs from MetService and international guidance, show afternoon temperatures peaking near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies and gusty NW winds of 40–60 km/h. This setup favors modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 13–14°C while limiting further rises due to persistent cloud and mixing. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–17°C reflects trader recognition of typical forecast uncertainty ranges in springtime southerly latitudes, where small shifts in wind strength or timing of any clearing can alter the daily peak by 1–2°C. No major model divergence or incoming cold front appears in the next 24–48 hours that would favor outcomes outside this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$18,579Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly flow is the dominant driver positioning 16°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 2 maximum.** Multiple operational models, including recent runs from MetService and international guidance, show afternoon temperatures peaking near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies and gusty NW winds of 40–60 km/h. This setup favors modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 13–14°C while limiting further rises due to persistent cloud and mixing. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–17°C reflects trader recognition of typical forecast uncertainty ranges in springtime southerly latitudes, where small shifts in wind strength or timing of any clearing can alter the daily peak by 1–2°C. No major model divergence or incoming cold front appears in the next 24–48 hours that would favor outcomes outside this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,579Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Strong northwesterly flow is the dominant driver positioning 16°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s September 2 maximum.** Multiple operational models, including recent runs from MetService and international guidance, show afternoon temperatures peaking near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies and gusty NW winds of 40–60 km/h. This setup favors modest warming above the seasonal average of roughly 13–14°C while limiting further rises due to persistent cloud and mixing. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 15–17°C reflects trader recognition of typical forecast uncertainty ranges in springtime southerly latitudes, where small shifts in wind strength or timing of any clearing can alter the daily peak by 1–2°C. No major model divergence or incoming cold front appears in the next 24–48 hours that would favor outcomes outside this narrow band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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