Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on self-determination, democratic governance, and national rights within a post-regime Iran, rather than formal secession or a unilateral declaration of independence. Ongoing protests and limited insurgent activity since late 2025 have prompted Iranian security responses, including airstrikes, while external actors such as the United States have explored support options amid broader regional conflict without endorsing statehood. Regional neighbors including Turkey and Iraq maintain opposition to separatism that could destabilize borders. Traders assign near-certain probability to no declaration by the June 30, 2026 resolution date because no major party has asserted governing authority over territory or issued such a statement. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or rapid military gains by coalition forces remain the primary scenarios that could shift the outcome.