Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a minimum temperature in Istanbul of 20–22°C on August 30 under partly cloudy skies and moderate northerly winds, driving the highest market-implied probabilities for 21–23°C. Clearer conditions expected overnight after scattered showers on August 29 will promote radiative cooling, though the urban heat island effect and proximity to the Bosphorus moderate the drop compared to inland areas. These outcomes align with climatological norms for late August, when overnight lows typically range 19–22°C amid weakening seasonal warmth. Minor model spread in predicted cloud cover and wind speeds introduces the main uncertainty, with updated runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service likely to refine probabilities as the night approaches.