Recent ECMWF and AEMET model runs highlight a cooling trend into August 28 driven by clearer skies after Thursday's showers, enabling enhanced radiational cooling overnight under light southwesterly winds and dew points near 8–10°C. This setup positions the minimum temperature near 13°C, consistent with historical late-August baselines around 18°C but tempered by current ensemble spread showing potential for 1–2°C deviations. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 9°C or below captures residual model uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates, while probabilities clustering near 12–13°C outcomes align with the central forecast range and upcoming 48-hour AEMET updates that could refine land-breeze influences or cloud cover.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Madrid le 28 août ?
La température la plus basse à Madrid le 28 août ?
12°C 50%
11°C 39%
10°C 37%
13°C 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
28 août 2026
9°C or below
9%
10°C
37%
11°C
39%
12°C
50%
13°C
37%
14°C
36%
15°C
36%
16°C
36%
17°C
9%
18°C
15%
19°C or higher
9%
12°C 50%
11°C 39%
10°C 37%
13°C 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
28 août 2026
9°C or below
$11 Vol.
9%
10°C
$0 Vol.
37%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$0 Vol.
37%
14°C
$0 Vol.
36%
15°C
$0 Vol.
36%
16°C
$0 Vol.
36%
17°C
$0 Vol.
9%
18°C
$5 Vol.
15%
19°C or higher
$15 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and AEMET model runs highlight a cooling trend into August 28 driven by clearer skies after Thursday's showers, enabling enhanced radiational cooling overnight under light southwesterly winds and dew points near 8–10°C. This setup positions the minimum temperature near 13°C, consistent with historical late-August baselines around 18°C but tempered by current ensemble spread showing potential for 1–2°C deviations. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 9°C or below captures residual model uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates, while probabilities clustering near 12–13°C outcomes align with the central forecast range and upcoming 48-hour AEMET updates that could refine land-breeze influences or cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$31Date de fin
28 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and AEMET model runs highlight a cooling trend into August 28 driven by clearer skies after Thursday's showers, enabling enhanced radiational cooling overnight under light southwesterly winds and dew points near 8–10°C. This setup positions the minimum temperature near 13°C, consistent with historical late-August baselines around 18°C but tempered by current ensemble spread showing potential for 1–2°C deviations. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 9°C or below captures residual model uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates, while probabilities clustering near 12–13°C outcomes align with the central forecast range and upcoming 48-hour AEMET updates that could refine land-breeze influences or cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31Date de fin
28 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and AEMET model runs highlight a cooling trend into August 28 driven by clearer skies after Thursday's showers, enabling enhanced radiational cooling overnight under light southwesterly winds and dew points near 8–10°C. This setup positions the minimum temperature near 13°C, consistent with historical late-August baselines around 18°C but tempered by current ensemble spread showing potential for 1–2°C deviations. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 9°C or below captures residual model uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates, while probabilities clustering near 12–13°C outcomes align with the central forecast range and upcoming 48-hour AEMET updates that could refine land-breeze influences or cloud cover.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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