Recent April CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—has anchored trader expectations for May, with energy prices surging 17.9% annually amid Middle East supply disruptions driving much of the acceleration. Core measures also ticked higher to 2.8%, reflecting early passthrough from elevated airfares and shelter costs, while monthly gains of 0.6% matched forecasts but exceeded prior consensus in the annual rate. With outcomes clustered tightly between 4.2% and 4.4%, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether May’s print will sustain this momentum or moderate as seasonal effects and base comparisons play out ahead of the June 10 release. Persistent geopolitical pressures and softening labor market signals continue to shape these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≥4,4 % 36%
4.3% 35%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 7%
$30,106 Vol.
$30,106 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
7%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
35%
≥4,4 %
36%
≥4,4 % 36%
4.3% 35%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 7%
$30,106 Vol.
$30,106 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
7%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
35%
≥4,4 %
36%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—has anchored trader expectations for May, with energy prices surging 17.9% annually amid Middle East supply disruptions driving much of the acceleration. Core measures also ticked higher to 2.8%, reflecting early passthrough from elevated airfares and shelter costs, while monthly gains of 0.6% matched forecasts but exceeded prior consensus in the annual rate. With outcomes clustered tightly between 4.2% and 4.4%, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether May’s print will sustain this momentum or moderate as seasonal effects and base comparisons play out ahead of the June 10 release. Persistent geopolitical pressures and softening labor market signals continue to shape these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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