The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st District because the open seat carries a modest R+5 partisan lean and most independent ratings classify it as Likely Republican. Aaron Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with strong support from party leaders and former President Trump, while Democrat Sam Forstag prevailed in a competitive primary after receiving backing from national progressive figures and organized labor. The district’s western counties include Democratic-leaning population centers, yet the overall electorate has favored Republicans in recent federal contests. Both the NRCC and DCCC have invested resources, and a June Democratic internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet subsequent forecaster assessments and the absence of major shifts in the national environment have kept the implied probability of a Republican victory above 60 percent. The November 3 general election remains the decisive resolution point.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMT-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MT-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$11,119 Vol.
$11,119 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
62%
Parti démocrate
38%
$11,119 Vol.
$11,119 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$6,168 Vol.
62%
Parti démocrate
$4,952 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st District because the open seat carries a modest R+5 partisan lean and most independent ratings classify it as Likely Republican. Aaron Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with strong support from party leaders and former President Trump, while Democrat Sam Forstag prevailed in a competitive primary after receiving backing from national progressive figures and organized labor. The district’s western counties include Democratic-leaning population centers, yet the overall electorate has favored Republicans in recent federal contests. Both the NRCC and DCCC have invested resources, and a June Democratic internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet subsequent forecaster assessments and the absence of major shifts in the national environment have kept the implied probability of a Republican victory above 60 percent. The November 3 general election remains the decisive resolution point.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$11,119Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st District because the open seat carries a modest R+5 partisan lean and most independent ratings classify it as Likely Republican. Aaron Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with strong support from party leaders and former President Trump, while Democrat Sam Forstag prevailed in a competitive primary after receiving backing from national progressive figures and organized labor. The district’s western counties include Democratic-leaning population centers, yet the overall electorate has favored Republicans in recent federal contests. Both the NRCC and DCCC have invested resources, and a June Democratic internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet subsequent forecaster assessments and the absence of major shifts in the national environment have kept the implied probability of a Republican victory above 60 percent. The November 3 general election remains the decisive resolution point.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,119Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s 1st District because the open seat carries a modest R+5 partisan lean and most independent ratings classify it as Likely Republican. Aaron Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with strong support from party leaders and former President Trump, while Democrat Sam Forstag prevailed in a competitive primary after receiving backing from national progressive figures and organized labor. The district’s western counties include Democratic-leaning population centers, yet the overall electorate has favored Republicans in recent federal contests. Both the NRCC and DCCC have invested resources, and a June Democratic internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet subsequent forecaster assessments and the absence of major shifts in the national environment have kept the implied probability of a Republican victory above 60 percent. The November 3 general election remains the decisive resolution point.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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