Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour15 octobre 25%
24 octobre 24%
27 octobre 24%
30 octobre 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
Le 1er octobre ou avant
15%
2 octobre
12%
3 octobre
12%
4 octobre
13%
5 octobre
22%
6 octobre
14%
7 octobre
14%
8 octobre
9%
9 octobre
8%
10 octobre
13%
11 octobre
12%
12 octobre
7%
13 octobre
23%
14 octobre
14%
15 octobre
25%
16 octobre
8%
17 octobre
13%
18 octobre
13%
19 octobre
14%
20 octobre
13%
21 octobre
13%
22 octobre
23%
23 octobre
7%
24 octobre
24%
25 octobre
13%
26 octobre
14%
27 octobre
24%
28 octobre
7%
29 octobre
14%
30 octobre
24%
31 octobre
8%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 31 octobre
8%
15 octobre 25%
24 octobre 24%
27 octobre 24%
30 octobre 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
Le 1er octobre ou avant
$24 Vol.
15%
2 octobre
$24 Vol.
12%
3 octobre
$24 Vol.
12%
4 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
5 octobre
$24 Vol.
22%
6 octobre
$24 Vol.
14%
7 octobre
$24 Vol.
14%
8 octobre
$24 Vol.
9%
9 octobre
$29 Vol.
8%
10 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
11 octobre
$24 Vol.
12%
12 octobre
$24 Vol.
7%
13 octobre
$24 Vol.
23%
14 octobre
$24 Vol.
14%
15 octobre
$24 Vol.
25%
16 octobre
$24 Vol.
8%
17 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
18 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
19 octobre
$24 Vol.
14%
20 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
21 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
22 octobre
$24 Vol.
23%
23 octobre
$24 Vol.
7%
24 octobre
$24 Vol.
24%
25 octobre
$24 Vol.
13%
26 octobre
$24 Vol.
14%
27 octobre
$24 Vol.
24%
28 octobre
$24 Vol.
7%
29 octobre
$24 Vol.
14%
30 octobre
$24 Vol.
24%
31 octobre
$32 Vol.
8%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 31 octobre
$24 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$787Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$787Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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