Google's history of repeated delays on flagship Gemini Pro releases, including the prolonged slippage of Gemini 3.5 Pro beyond its May 2026 I/O promise and July target, combined with the recent September 2 launch of Gemini 3.8 Flash, forms the main driver behind the evenly distributed October probabilities. Traders see the next Pro variant as likely falling in early-to-mid October amid ongoing internal testing, partner feedback integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, yet the lack of firm public timelines or confirmed benchmarks creates the observed 23–25% clustering across multiple dates. This uncertainty reflects Google's conservative rollout approach for frontier large language models and the typical 30-day cadence between major updates, with no release by month-end holding only 14.5% implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour19 octobre 49%
7 octobre 25%
13 octobre 25%
16 octobre 25%
Le 1er octobre ou avant
12%
2 octobre
1%
3 octobre
5%
4 octobre
5%
5 octobre
1%
6 octobre
7%
7 octobre
25%
8 octobre
9%
9 octobre
1%
10 octobre
10%
11 octobre
9%
12 octobre
9%
13 octobre
25%
14 octobre
5%
15 octobre
12%
16 octobre
25%
17 octobre
5%
18 octobre
25%
19 octobre
49%
20 octobre
25%
21 octobre
13%
22 octobre
7%
23 octobre
6%
24 octobre
25%
25 octobre
5%
26 octobre
7%
27 octobre
13%
28 octobre
5%
29 octobre
13%
30 octobre
6%
31 octobre
5%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 31 octobre
7%
19 octobre 49%
7 octobre 25%
13 octobre 25%
16 octobre 25%
Le 1er octobre ou avant
12%
2 octobre
1%
3 octobre
5%
4 octobre
5%
5 octobre
1%
6 octobre
7%
7 octobre
25%
8 octobre
9%
9 octobre
1%
10 octobre
10%
11 octobre
9%
12 octobre
9%
13 octobre
25%
14 octobre
5%
15 octobre
12%
16 octobre
25%
17 octobre
5%
18 octobre
25%
19 octobre
49%
20 octobre
25%
21 octobre
13%
22 octobre
7%
23 octobre
6%
24 octobre
25%
25 octobre
5%
26 octobre
7%
27 octobre
13%
28 octobre
5%
29 octobre
13%
30 octobre
6%
31 octobre
5%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 31 octobre
7%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google's history of repeated delays on flagship Gemini Pro releases, including the prolonged slippage of Gemini 3.5 Pro beyond its May 2026 I/O promise and July target, combined with the recent September 2 launch of Gemini 3.8 Flash, forms the main driver behind the evenly distributed October probabilities. Traders see the next Pro variant as likely falling in early-to-mid October amid ongoing internal testing, partner feedback integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models, yet the lack of firm public timelines or confirmed benchmarks creates the observed 23–25% clustering across multiple dates. This uncertainty reflects Google's conservative rollout approach for frontier large language models and the typical 30-day cadence between major updates, with no release by month-end holding only 14.5% implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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